Loki Retakes the Top Spot in the ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ Death Pool, and a Video Game Might Be Why

Prediction markets have become an increasingly popular way for fans to process their anxiety ahead of major ‘Star Wars’ and Marvel releases, turning speculation about who lives and who dies into something closer to a live sport. ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ has been no exception, with traders constantly shuffling their bets as new trailers, rumors, and stray bits of marketing trickle out.

For a while, that speculation had actually shifted away from one of the franchise’s most frequently killed-off characters. Steve Rogers had climbed to the top of the betting pool, pushed there by ambiguous trailer footage and lingering questions about which version of the character was even returning.

That’s changed again. Steve Rogers has been overtaken as the favorite to die in ‘Avengers: Doomsday,’ with Loki reclaiming the top spot after his death in ‘Marvel Rivals’ sent traders scrambling to update their odds, according to Polymarket.com. The prediction market now places Loki’s death probability at 77 percent, marking a 27-point jump.

The shift traces back to ‘Marvel Rivals’ Season 10, which launched on September 11, 2026, and introduced Gorr the God Butcher as a new playable character. Loki had mysteriously vanished from the game’s character select screen ahead of the season, and the new trailer confirmed why.

According to the game’s own season description, Gorr has been “wielding the power of All-Black the Necrosword against the would-be gods of Thebes,” a mission that fans quickly connected to Loki’s disappearance. The implication that Gorr killed Loki within the game’s ongoing story was enough to send ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ bettors rushing back to Loki as the character most likely to die in the upcoming film.

Before this latest swing, Steve Rogers had briefly held the top position in the same betting pool. Part of that shift stemmed from trailer footage reportedly showing Thor questioning Steve’s return, fueling theories that the version appearing in ‘Doomsday’ might be an alternate variant rather than the character fans know.

Additional fan theories pointed to footage showing Steve alongside a child, which some traders interpreted as a possible setup for another significant character exit tied to his arc. That combination of ambiguity was apparently enough to briefly knock Loki out of the top spot, at least until the ‘Marvel Rivals’ reveal reshuffled things again.

Loki’s frequent brushes with death across the MCU have made him something of a recurring case study in fan speculation, and this latest wrinkle only adds to that pattern. Unverified reports have also previously claimed that Doctor Doom kills Loki during an attack on the Time Variance Authority, adding another layer to the character’s already precarious odds heading into the film.

Thor, meanwhile, had also spent time at the top of the market earlier before sliding down as attention shifted elsewhere. Sam Wilson’s Captain America and Doctor Strange currently sit in more middle-of-the-pack territory, while Doctor Doom holds one of the lowest death probabilities, widely expected to survive through to ‘Avengers: Secret Wars.’

Marvel has offered no official confirmation about any character’s fate in ‘Avengers: Doomsday,’ and the studio’s marketing has historically leaned into exactly this kind of ambiguity rather than clearing it up. That silence leaves prediction markets like this one to keep filling the gap with trailer analysis, cross-media Easter eggs, and pure fan instinct.

Whether Loki’s ‘Marvel Rivals’ fate ends up mirroring anything in the actual film remains to be seen, but for now, bettors clearly aren’t taking any chances. ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ is set to hit theaters on December 18, 2026.

The first trailer for ‘AVENGERS: DOOMSDAY’ has been released.

In theaters on December 18. pic.twitter.com/AlSIXL32CD

— DiscussingFilm (@DiscussingFilm) July 20, 2026

The market tracking these odds has reportedly pulled in roughly $20,000 in trading volume so far, a relatively modest figure that still speaks to how invested fans have become in guessing the film’s outcome before it even arrives. Every new trailer clip or cross-promotional tie-in seems capable of sending the numbers swinging in a different direction.

That volatility is likely to continue right up until the film’s December release, especially with Marvel’s marketing team showing no signs of confirming or denying any of it directly. For now, Loki’s odds sit at the top, but if this pool has proven anything so far, it’s that nothing about it is settled for long.

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