‘Digger’ Is Racing ‘Strange World’ and ‘Elio’ for the Worst Global Opening of a Big-Budget Movie

Every few years, a movie with a nine-figure budget lands in theaters and the box office tells a very different story from the one the studio imagined. Those openings tend to become cautionary tales, and a few have grown into shorthand for what a flop looks like. Now a box office tracker is arguing that Tom Cruise’s ‘Digger’ belongs in that conversation.

The conversation started with a list. Box Office Forecast flagged what it called the three worst global openings it could find for movies with budgets of $150 million or more and a large overseas rollout. The trio is Disney’s ‘Strange World,’ ‘Haunted Mansion’ and Pixar’s ‘Elio,’ and each opened to a global total between $28 million and $35 million.

On Oct. 2, the tracker declared that ‘Digger’ had accepted the challenge. Its early day-one comparisons paint a mixed picture, with the film running well behind ‘One Battle After Another’ in Australia, Germany and Italy. It fared better against ‘Asteroid City,’ beating that film’s day-one pace in Australia and Germany but not in Italy, while ‘Birdman’ comps were split. The tracker concluded that a $25 million global opening is in play, if the film is lucky.

🚨Box Office Alert🚨
The WORST 3 global openings I could find for $150M+ budget movies with a large overseas rollout:

🥇Strange World (2022)
Bud: $180M | 🌍 $28M
🥈Haunted Mansion (2023)
Bud: $150M | 🌍 $33M
🥉Elio (2025)
Bud: $150M | 🌍 $35M#Digger: challenge accepted.… pic.twitter.com/tvFLWGRekG

— Box Office Forecast 🎬 (@BoxOfficeFcst) October 2, 2026

The numbers fit what other outlets have been reporting. ‘Digger’ earned just $1.2 million in Thursday previews, and Warner Bros. had projected a $12 million to $15 million domestic start. Overseas, 73 territories excluding China are expected to deliver another $15 million to $20 million, which would mean about $35 million globally at the high end, according to Deadline.

‘Strange World’ opened over Thanksgiving 2022 with $18.6 million domestically across five days and $9.2 million from 43 international markets, for a $27.8 million global debut. It carried a $180 million budget and ended with about $73.6 million worldwide, losing Disney an estimated $197 million.

‘Haunted Mansion’ opened in July 2023 with $24 million domestically and about $33.3 million globally against a $150 million budget. It was the first big-budget film hurt by the SAG-AFTRA strike, which kept its cast from promoting it. It grossed roughly $117 million worldwide.

‘Elio’ opened in June 2025 with $21 million domestically and $14 million overseas for a $35 million global start, Pixar’s worst opening ever. Its reported budget was $150 million. Strong audience scores didn’t change the math, and the film’s overseas footprint was still rolling out in several markets.

The comparison hinges on cost. ‘Digger’ was greenlit at $125 million, but four knowledgeable sources told Variety the budget climbed to between $160 million and $180 million after production ran over schedule. Warner Bros. disputes the higher figures.

Variety also reported that about $100 million went to marketing, putting the theatrical break-even point near $350 million worldwide according to executives with knowledge of similar films. Warner Bros. says the break-even is $300 million. Either way, the film would need staggering legs from a global opening that may not reach $30 million.

A new trailer for ‘DIGGER’ has been released.

In theaters October 2. pic.twitter.com/kTEeFZI14E

— Film Updates (@FilmUpdates) September 9, 2026

The timing adds to the sting. ‘Digger’ is the final Warner Bros. release as a standalone studio before the Paramount merger closes on Oct. 6. It is also opening in second place behind Amazon MGM’s ‘Verity,’ which is projected to land a worldwide debut of $50 million to $55 million.

Critics have been split, and one forecast has the film’s domestic opening as Cruise’s lowest since ‘Lions for Lambs’ in 2007. Supporters argue it is a bold, ambitious swing from an Oscar-winning director. But the box office doesn’t grade on ambition, and the early numbers suggest ‘Digger’ is heading for the kind of legacy no studio wants.

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