Prediction Market Reveals Where ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ Could Land on Rotten Tomatoes

Critics have historically been kind to the Avengers movies, though not uniformly. Marvel’s ‘The Avengers’ earned 91% on Rotten Tomatoes, ‘Avengers: Age of Ultron’ dropped to 75%, ‘Avengers: Infinity War’ reached 85% and ‘Avengers: Endgame’ climbed to 94%. That spread is why every new team-up arrives with a score to beat.

The bar looks tough for 2026, even after a strong summer. ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’ sits at 89% with critics, which was not enough to place it among the top 10 MCU films by Tomatometer. Audiences loved it more, and it has grossed more than $2.4 billion worldwide.

That makes the next big Marvel release a very public test, and fans are already looking for early signs. According Kalshi, ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ is predicted to score 85.5% on Rotten Tomatoes, based on a forecast from the prediction market.

JUST IN: Traders forecast an 85.5% Rotten Tomatoes score for Avengers Doomsday pic.twitter.com/vPyZaEBiCn

— Kalshi (@Kalshi) October 2, 2026

That figure has stayed in a fairly narrow band. The market’s prediction has been in the low-to-mid 80s since April, when it opened. It was at 82% in mid-June, reached 84.8% by late August, and Kalshi’s market page showed 84.7% earlier this week.

For context, 85.5% would land just above ‘Infinity War’ and well above ‘Age of Ultron.’ It would still trail ‘The Avengers’ and ‘Endgame,’ which makes it a solid but not record-setting outcome. It would also clear the 75% threshold Rotten Tomatoes requires for Certified Fresh status.

The market itself is less certain than the headline number suggests. Kalshi’s odds give ‘Doomsday’ about a 68% chance of scoring above 80, 49% of topping 85, and 30% of beating 90. In other words, traders see an 85% score as roughly a coin flip.

Outside that market, confidence in a baseline is strong. A separate Polymarket market assigns a 95% chance to the film scoring at least 70, so most traders expect the movie to avoid a bad reception. The more interesting question is how high it climbs.

It’s worth treating all of this with caution. These are live, shifting forecasts rather than verdicts, since the film hasn’t been screened for critics yet, and the final score could land far from 85.5%. Early predictions have been revised plenty of times already.

He used to be different.

Avengers: Doomsday arrives in theaters everywhere December 18. Get your tickets now: https://t.co/J5PUbxvAkc pic.twitter.com/OUutSMZneq

— Marvel Studios (@MarvelStudios) August 15, 2026

The film itself has plenty working in its favor. The Russo brothers direct, Robert Downey Jr. plays Doctor Doom, and the story brings together the Avengers, Wakandans, the Fantastic Four, the New Avengers and the X-Men to face him. It opens exclusively in theaters on December 18, and it kicks off what Marvel calls the final chapter of the Multiverse Saga.

For now, 85.5% is just a number on a chart. Reviews will tell the real story, and fans will find out soon enough whether the market was right.

Have something to add? Let us know in the comments!