Everyone Expects Tobey Maguire in ‘Avengers: Doomsday,’ So Why Is Tom Holland’s Spider-Man the Question Mark?

Few Marvel storylines have captured fans’ imaginations like the idea of Spider-Men sharing the screen. The multiverse has made it possible for different versions of the same hero to cross paths, and audiences have been hungry for more ever since. As the next Avengers film approaches, speculation about which web-slinger will show up has reached a fever pitch.

That excitement dates back to ‘Spider-Man: No Way Home’ in 2021, which brought together Tom Holland, Andrew Garfield and Tobey Maguire. The film grossed $1.9 billion worldwide and became the biggest commercial success of the Multiverse Saga. Maguire, who has not played the character since, has said he felt grateful to return and that working alongside Garfield and Holland was special.

Now, with ‘Avengers: Doomsday‘ set to open on December 18, online sentiment has settled on a surprising pattern. A chart making the rounds shows prediction-market traders giving Maguire roughly a 90% chance of appearing in the film, while Holland sits at just 49%. It’s a striking contrast, given that Holland is the MCU’s current Spider-Man.

Tobey Maguire hasn’t been Spider-Man since 2021, but polymarket⁠.com traders still give him a 90% chance of appearing in Avengers: Doomsday The MCU’s current Spider-Man, Tom Holland, is sitting at just 49% https://t.co/4GSw98hgne

— ScreenTime (@screentime) October 12, 2026

It’s important to be clear that none of this is official. Marvel’s initial cast announcement revealed about 27 actors, and Holland, Maguire and Garfield were not among them. Kevin Feige has teased that the full cast hasn’t been revealed yet, which keeps the door open.

The percentages themselves reflect traders’ guesses, not inside information. They show where fan and market expectations are leaning, and they can swing quickly with every new rumor. Treat them as a mood indicator rather than confirmation.

The speculation around Maguire has been building for a year. Insider Daniel Richtman claimed that Maguire’s Spider-Man would appear in ‘Doomsday,’ and a separate report said Maguire and Garfield were the only legacy heroes confirmed for ‘Doomsday’ or ‘Avengers: Secret Wars.’ Another insider later claimed his version of the hero would survive the film.

Fans also pointed to a September 2025 sighting of Maguire with a fan in London, where ‘Doomsday’ was being filmed at the time. Earlier reports suggested a dramatic opening involving incursions that would destroy universes, though those claims remain unconfirmed. Hasbro is also reportedly planning a Marvel Legends figure of Maguire’s Spider-Man, according to one outlet.

Holland’s absence from the early cast list has driven plenty of debate. One report claimed his Spider-Man would not appear in ‘Doomsday’ and that Marvel was saving him for ‘Secret Wars.’ Others have noted that Holland’s own movie, ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day,’ arrived on July 31 and was designed to start a “proper Spider-Man” era focused on street-level stories, according to Feige.

That film went on to become the highest-grossing Spider-Man movie, the highest-grossing film of 2026 and the third-highest-grossing movie of all time. Given that success, Marvel has every reason to keep Holland’s character central to its future plans. Whether that includes a cameo in ‘Doomsday’ is anyone’s guess.

He used to be different. Avengers: Doomsday arrives in theaters everywhere December 18. Get your tickets now: https://t.co/J5PUbxvAkc https://t.co/OUutSMZneq

— Marvel Studios (@MarvelStudios) August 15, 2026

The post-credits scene of Holland’s latest film has added fuel to the fire. Some viewers noticed a “new Spider-Man sighting” alert that didn’t seem to refer to Holland’s Peter, leading to theories that it could be a hint at another version, possibly Maguire’s. Holland’s noncommittal answers about Maguire appearing have only deepened the speculation.

Of course, none of that proves anything. Marvel is famous for misdirection, and the ‘No Way Home’ cast spent nearly a year denying their involvement before the film opened. That history makes every denial and every rumor harder to trust.

With ‘Doomsday’ arriving in a few months, answers should arrive soon. The Russo brothers are directing from a screenplay by Stephen McFeely, and ‘Secret Wars’ is set to follow in 2027. A final trailer or a surprise cast announcement could settle the debate at any time.

Until then, the numbers say a lot about what fans want. They want to see Maguire back in the suit, and they want to know where Holland’s story is headed. Only Marvel knows how it all fits together.

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