Jack Lowden and Callum Turner Are Neck and Neck for 007, and the Bond Betting Market Is Shaken and Stirred
Few casting decisions in entertainment generate as much noise as the search for the next James Bond. Fans have argued over shortlists for years, and every offhand comment from an actor or director sends the odds spinning. The only thing missing is the announcement itself.
Amazon MGM took creative control of the franchise in February 2025, and Denis Villeneuve was confirmed as director on June 25, 2025. Steven Knight is writing the script, with Amy Pascal and David Heyman producing and Nina Gold running casting. On May 14, 2026, the studio put out a rare statement confirming that the search for Daniel Craig’s successor was underway, and it has said nothing about who is in the running.
That silence has turned prediction markets into a real-time pulse check on fan expectations. The latest numbers show Jack Lowden and Callum Turner tied at 32% each on Kalshi to become the next James Bond, with Josh O’Connor trailing at 23% in a market that has drawn more than $2.5 million in trading volume. The deadlock is a notable shift from just a few weeks ago.
JUST IN: Jack Lowden and Callum Turner are tied in the odds to become the next James Bond https://t.co/XYIlyxM5qz
— Kalshi (@Kalshi) October 18, 2026
In mid-August, Lowden took the lead in the Kalshi market at 32%, passing former frontrunner Turner at 27% after an insider report. Jacob Elordi sat at 13% at the time. The jump followed comments from Richard Osman, who said the name he had heard was Lowden’s.
By October 2, Kalshi’s own market report had Lowden out front at 44%, with Turner at 39% and Jack O’Connell at 11%. Gary Oldman, a co-star of Lowden’s on ‘Slow Horses,’ also said in an interview that Lowden has a good chance of getting the part, according to Variety. Then Global James Bond Day passed on October 5 without a casting reveal, and the momentum faded.
The market has also been volatile. A separate Kalshi contract on Josh O’Connor swung roughly 27 points in a day to 29% around October 10, according to market trackers, though no casting news backed it up. Jack O’Connell’s odds also jumped after Danny Boyle publicly endorsed him, before settling near 5%.
Other platforms tell a similar story. On Polymarket, the leading outcome has been “No Bond chosen” at around 34%, with Lowden at 33% and Turner at 18.7%. In traditional betting, Action Network’s James Bond Day update had Lowden leading at 4/5, with Turner second at 11/4 and O’Connell third.
The official picture is far quieter than the odds suggest. Amazon MGM has not confirmed any actor, and recent reporting suggests the process is at an advanced stage without a final decision. Casting reports also suggest Villeneuve wants a fresh face.
At CinemaCon in April, studio film chief Courtenay Valenti acknowledged the pressure directly. “Now, I know you’re all wondering when we’re going to announce who’s playing James Bond,” she told the crowd, according to The Hollywood Reporter. She added that pairing the franchise with a world-class team sets the stage for something worthy of the Bond legacy.
An anonymous source reportedly told TheWrap that anything heard on the casting front is untrustworthy until the script is delivered and screen tests can happen. Villeneuve himself has been reported to be personally calling actors who advanced to a further round of auditions that were set for August. The exact number of actors who made the cut is unknown.
Even once an actor is named, fans will wait. Deadline has put the target release at November 2028, with cameras not expected to turn before 2027. That means the new 007 would arrive roughly 7 years after Craig’s ‘No Time to Die’ in 2021, which closed out his 5-film run that began in 2006.
Producers have indicated that news on the casting could come by the end of 2026, which keeps the speculation going. Lowden and Turner are both 36, an age that fits the range reportedly being considered, and both have devoted followings online. For now, though, the numbers are a snapshot of speculation rather than evidence.
That is part of the fun. Prediction markets turn a guessing game into a scoreboard, and every rumor, endorsement and podcast aside nudges the line. Whoever gets the call, the next Bond will have to live up to years of public debate before he ever steps onto a set.
Who would you choose to play the next James Bond?
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