‘Avengers: Doomsday’ Is Reportedly Set to Dominate ‘Dune: Part Three’ on ‘Dunesday’ Weekend, With Presales Pointing to a Lopsided Matchup

When 2 giant films open on the same day, the box office story usually becomes a rivalry. Fans pick sides, analysts compare numbers and every new data point gets treated as a scoreboard update. This December’s clash has had all of those ingredients since the release dates were announced.

The nickname is ‘Dunesday,’ and it describes a weekend that could produce 2 enormous openings at once. One film is a superhero crossover that has been marketed for months, while the other is a prestige sci-fi finale built around giant screens. Early ticket sales are now giving a clearer picture of how the weekend might break down.

According to a new analysis of presales, ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ will win the December 18 weekend over ‘Dune: Part Three’ by a ratio of roughly 3.2 to 1, or even 4 to 1. The analyst said the comparison isn’t a knock on ‘Dune’ sales and described the ‘Doomsday’ lead as a juggernaut. It’s a projection based on early data rather than a final result, but the gap it describes is dramatic.

Based on presales so far, @Avengers Doomsday going to win Dec. 18th weekend by a 3.2x or 4x to 1 ratio. Not a knock on the sales of @dunemovie at all, but the winner of the weekend is set. There is no real competition between the two, shows you what a juggernaut is incoming. https://t.co/XsZw51pVLU

— EmpireCity Box Office (@EmpireCityBO) October 24, 2026

The ‘Doomsday’ numbers have been growing fast. The film earned $16.5 million in its first 24 hours of premium-format presales and became the first to pass $40 million in domestic presales 100 days before release. Trackers have since reported more than $100 million worldwide, with a more recent report putting the figure at $125 million.

International tracking appears to back up the gap. A Bulgarian tracker reported that ‘Doomsday’ was matching ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’ at the same point in the countdown, while leaving ‘Dune: Part Three’ behind. All of those numbers come from tracking rather than official confirmation.

None of that means ‘Dune: Part Three’ is struggling. Global Box Office has said regular showings are selling better than Christopher Nolan’s ‘The Odyssey’ and projects a domestic opening of more than $100 million, with a debut above $120 million not out of reach. That would be a huge result for a film that is a sequel to a hit that earned over $700 million worldwide.

The difference lies in the type of sales. One analysis noted that ‘Doomsday’ holds the edge in raw presale volume, while ‘Dune’ dominates high-margin IMAX 70mm ticketing. That distinction matters because premium formats generate far more revenue per seat.

“Forgive me for all I’ve done.” Experience the epic conclusion. Dune: Part Three only in theaters and IMAX December 18. #DuneMovie #FilmedforIMAX https://t.co/x9Nftg9yXd

— DUNE (@dunemovie) July 8, 2026

Warner Bros. secured an exclusive 3-week IMAX window, so ‘Doomsday’ can’t play in the format in the US at launch. It still plays in IMAX overseas. Disney’s answer is Infinity Vision, a premium certification that launched with ‘Avengers: Endgame Encore’ and covers big, laser-projected auditoriums with Dolby sound.

‘Dune’ has leaned hard into the format. It’s the first in the franchise partly shot with IMAX film cameras and features 71 minutes in IMAX’s expanded 1.90:1 aspect ratio. Only about 40 venues worldwide are showing it in IMAX 70mm, which makes those seats some of the hottest tickets of the year.

He used to be different. Avengers: Doomsday arrives in theaters everywhere December 18. Get your tickets now: https://t.co/J5PUbxvAkc https://t.co/OUutSMZneq

— Marvel Studios (@MarvelStudios) August 15, 2026

It’s worth remembering how presale numbers work. They reflect the earliest and most enthusiastic buyers, and they can be front-loaded or distorted by early premium sales. Marvel’s decision to open tickets about 4 months ahead of release, compared with about 45 days for ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day,’ also affects comparisons.

Premium formats tend to sell out quickly, and a 70mm screening of ‘Dune’ can only seat so many people. Standard screens and families could change the picture once general sales mature. That’s why analysts treat early ratios with caution.

A same-day release doesn’t necessarily mean one film beats the other. Several analysts have said both films can succeed because they appeal to different audiences, and recent history shows 2 major releases can share a window. ‘Dune’ is aimed at a prestige audience, while ‘Doomsday’ is a four-quadrant event.

Still, the numbers will shape the narrative. Warner Bros. is relying on ‘Dune: Part Three’ to save a difficult year, while Disney needs ‘Doomsday’ to confirm that Marvel’s audience hasn’t gone away. Both studios have a lot at stake.

Early-access ‘Dune Insider’ screenings begin December 14 in IMAX 70mm, and the film opens internationally on December 16 before arriving in North America on December 18. ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ opens the same day, directed by Anthony and Joe Russo. More tracking updates should arrive as the weekend approaches.

For now, the forecast describes a lopsided weekend, but forecasts have been wrong before. The real answer will come when tickets are scanned.

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