‘Avengers: Doomsday’ Is Reportedly Set to Dwarf ‘Dune: Part Three’ in a Lopsided Dunesday Showdown
Few release-date collisions have generated as much chatter as Dunesday. The nickname covers the December 18 opening of ‘Dune: Part Three‘ and ‘Avengers: Doomsday‘, a clash between Denis Villeneuve’s trilogy finale and Marvel’s biggest team-up in years. Fans have spent months arguing over which film should blink first.
Robert Downey Jr. coined the name during a January Q&A he moderated for Timothée Chalamet’s ‘Marty Supreme’, winking at the 2023 ‘Barbie’ and ‘Oppenheimer’ phenomenon. Downey returns in ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ as Victor von Doom, in the first Avengers movie since 2019. Chalamet comes back as Paul Atreides in Villeneuve’s final entry in the saga.
Now early ticket sales are suggesting the weekend may not be a fair fight. A presale analysis indicates ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ will win the December 18 weekend by a ratio of roughly 3.2 to 1, and possibly as high as 4 to 1, over ‘Dune: Part Three’. The analyst stressed that this is no knock on ‘Dune’ sales, but considers the weekend’s winner already decided.
Marvel’s numbers are enormous even before the film opens. Box office tracker Global Box Office projects a domestic opening between $260 million and $300 million, and some reports have floated figures near $400 million, though those are speculation. For context, ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’ now holds the domestic opening record at about $360 million, narrowly edging ‘Avengers: Endgame’ at $357.1 million.
The early sales trail backs up the hype. When premium-format tickets went on sale on July 20, the film pulled in $16.5 million on day 1 across roughly 1,000 domestic theaters. Presales have since reportedly crossed $125 million, and early reports had the film running about 65% ahead of ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’ at the same point in its sales window.
The gap also shows up overseas. A Bulgarian tracker reported that ‘Doomsday’ was matching ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’ at the same point in the countdown while leaving ‘Dune: Part Three’ behind.
‘AVENGERS: DOOMSDAY’ is expected to earn 3-4 times more than ‘DUNE: PART THREE’ in its opening weekend. (via @EmpireCityBO) https://t.co/0fVcs6nyWy
— Cosmic Marvel (@cosmic_marvel) October 24, 2026
None of this means Villeneuve’s finale is struggling. ‘Dune: Part Three’ reportedly earned around $10 million domestically on the first day of wider presales, a franchise best. Trackers project a domestic opening above $100 million, with $120 million or more not out of reach.
Those projections would beat ‘Dune: Part Two’, which opened with $82.5 million, and the first ‘Dune’, which debuted with $41 million. The film also posted a record first day at London’s BFI IMAX, where the opening weekend IMAX screenings sold out almost immediately.
Premium screens are where Warner Bros. holds its strongest card. ‘Dune: Part Three’ reportedly secured an exclusive 3-week IMAX window, which means ‘Doomsday’ can’t play in that format in the US during its opening stretch. One analysis noted that ‘Doomsday’ leads in raw presale volume, while ‘Dune’ dominates high-margin IMAX 70mm ticketing. Early-access ‘Dune’ Insider screenings begin December 14, and the film opens internationally on December 16.
He used to be different. Avengers: Doomsday arrives in theaters everywhere December 18. Get your tickets now: https://t.co/J5PUbxvAkc https://t.co/OUutSMZneq
— Marvel Studios (@MarvelStudios) August 15, 2026
Marvel’s film is playing across all formats and showtimes, which gives it a much broader reach. ‘Dune’ is aimed at a prestige audience, while ‘Doomsday’ is a four-quadrant event. That split is a big reason the 2 films may not cannibalize each other as much as fans feared.
“Forgive me for all I’ve done.” Experience the epic conclusion. Dune: Part Three only in theaters and IMAX December 18. #DuneMovie #FilmedforIMAX https://t.co/x9Nftg9yXd
— DUNE (@dunemovie) July 8, 2026
If both films clear $100 million, it would reportedly mark the first time 2 separate releases opened above that mark on the same weekend. Many analysts expect Dunesday to set a new domestic weekend record. Both studios have so far held their ground on the date.
Still, it’s worth remembering that presales measure excitement, not quality. They can shift quickly once reviews and word of mouth arrive, and forecasts have been wrong before. Dunesday is shaping up as a historic weekend however the split lands.
Can 'Dune: Part Three' challenge 'Avengers: Doomsday' at the box office on Dunesday?
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