‘The Cat in the Hat’ Box Office Tracking Splits Wildly: Is Warner Bros.’ Dr. Seuss Reboot a Bomb in the Making or a Surprise Rescue?

Warner Bros. Pictures

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Dr. Seuss movies have a complicated history at the box office, and Warner Bros. is about to find out whether its animated take on the Cat can break the pattern. ‘The Cat in the Hat‘ opens November 6 as the first feature from a planned Dr. Seuss animated universe. Ahead of launch, tracking numbers are all over the map.

The studio has a lot riding on the film. Its animation division has had a bumpy run with family properties, and Warner Bros. has struggled for a big opening this year. A recent release called ‘Digger’ managed only $8 million on its opening weekend, while ‘Clayface’ debuted at No. 1 with $24 million.

That makes the latest projection from one box office tracker particularly eye-catching. A claim circulating online says ‘The Cat in the Hat’ is tracking to open to just $17 million to $22 million domestically, on a budget of nearly $100 million. If that range proves accurate, it would be a rough start for a film built to launch a franchise.

The $17 million to $22 million figure is an outlier among published forecasts. Box Office Pro’s long-range forecast puts the film at $40 million to $50 million, a range that would give Warner Bros. its first $40 million opener of the year. Box Office Watch predicts $30 million to $40 million with a total of $110 million to $150 million, and SlashFilm cited a projection of $25 million to $35 million from Box Office Theory.

The budget is also a moving target. SlashFilm estimated it at somewhere between $70 million and $90 million based on Warner Bros. Pictures Animation’s history, a lower figure than the roughly $100 million in the bomb claim. No official budget has been confirmed in the sources reviewed.

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The property carries baggage. The 2003 live-action version starring Mike Myers opened to $38.3 million and finished with about $101 million domestically on a $109 million budget. It was reportedly the reason the Seuss estate stopped licensing live-action adaptations.

On the other side, ‘The Grinch’ opened to $67.5 million in 2018, showing how big an animated Seuss release can get when audiences connect. Pixar’s ‘Hoppers’ also opened to $45.3 million in March, a useful benchmark for a family-oriented animated release.

The film faces competition from an unexpected corner. ‘Godzilla Minus Zero’ opens the same day, with projections in the $25 million to $35 million range. It is carrying a 95% to 97% score on Rotten Tomatoes, is the first Japanese production shot for IMAX, and is the first R-rated film in the Godzilla franchise.

That means the weekend could come down to a tight race for No. 1. One prediction market priced the matchup at roughly even odds. The family audience is otherwise wide open, since the next major kids’ release is ‘Hexed’ at Thanksgiving.

Bill Hader voices the Cat, joined by Matt Berry as the Fish, Quinta Brunson, Xochitl Gomez, Giancarlo Esposito and America Ferrera. Erica Rivinoja and Alessandro Carloni direct, with animation by DNEG. Early footage promised an edgier tone, billing the story as an epic adventure where mischief, magic and mayhem reign.

The plot follows the Cat as an agent of an organization called the Institute for the Institution of Imagination and Inspiration, who is handed his toughest assignment as a last chance to keep his job. As of the latest check, the film had no reviews on Rotten Tomatoes, so critical reception remains an open question.

Warner Bros. wants the film to be the foundation of a Seuss universe, so a strong opening would validate the plan. A weak one would raise questions about the economics of the studio’s animation push. Even the optimistic tracking requires a healthy run through the holidays to turn a profit on a film of this size.

The truth will arrive quickly. Once weekend actuals post, it should be clear whether the gloomiest forecast was premature or the rosier projections were wishful thinking.

How do you think The Cat in the Hat will perform at the box office?

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