Bettors Think Iron Man Returning in ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ Is Nearly a Coin Flip

When Tony Stark made his sacrifice in ‘Avengers: Endgame’, it was supposed to be the final word on Iron Man. Robert Downey Jr. played the armored hero from 2008 to 2019 and reprised him in 10 Marvel films, and the character died saving the universe from Thanos. Marvel head Kevin Feige was firm in 2023 that Tony Stark would not return in future entries, which made the idea of a comeback feel like a closed door.

Then came San Diego Comic-Con in 2024, when Downey walked onto the Hall H stage to reveal he was coming back to the MCU. Fans naturally assumed that meant Iron Man, but he was holding the mask of Doctor Doom instead and declared it a ‘new mask, same task’. The Russo brothers are directing, and Downey is playing Victor von Doom in ‘Avengers: Doomsday’.

Now, with the film roughly 6 weeks away, the prediction market Kalshi is showing that plenty of people still believe the armored Avenger might make an appearance. Its market asking whether Downey will be back as Iron Man this year currently sits at a 44.4% chance, up 12.4 points. A chart attached to the market shows a long, bumpy climb with a sharp spike near the end, suggesting traders have been changing their minds quickly.

44% chance Robert Downey Jr is back as Iron Man this year https://t.co/CFYKfLDiF7

— Kalshi Film (@Kalshi_Film) November 5, 2026

The number has not always been this high. The chances peaked at 44.9% on July 25 and then dropped, and at one point traders had it sitting at 29.5%. By late August, the odds had cooled enough that one outlet called them low and argued that the figure felt too pessimistic given how many universes are about to collide.

The recent jump brings the market back to its previous high point. With the odds sitting just under 50%, traders are essentially treating an Iron Man appearance as a coin flip. As with any prediction market, the figure reflects bettor sentiment rather than inside information, and Marvel has not confirmed anything.

The Doom casting has fueled a theory that refuses to die. Some fans believe Downey’s villain could be a variant of Tony Stark, an idea that has been boosted by the comics, where there are versions of Doom in the multiverse who actually are Stark. One storyline, ‘Iron Man: Demon in Armor’, swaps Stark’s mind into Doom’s body, while another saw Doom attempt redemption as the ‘Infamous Iron Man’ after Stark’s death.

Marvel has not said Doom is a Stark variant, and Downey has not said he is revisiting Tony in any form. Even so, a cryptic Instagram post from the actor last November showed a comic illustration of Doom and Iron Man pulling on opposite ends of a wishbone, which sent speculation into overdrive. An unverified rumor has also claimed that the film’s climactic battle will feature an Iron Man variant fighting Doom, though nothing about that has been confirmed.

He used to be different. Avengers: Doomsday arrives in theaters everywhere December 18. Get your tickets now: https://t.co/J5PUbxvAkc https://t.co/OUutSMZneq

— Marvel Studios (@MarvelStudios) August 15, 2026

Not every theory requires undoing Tony’s sacrifice. One argument holds that characters like Iron Man are unlikely to return in a way that erases their ‘Endgame’ ending, but that Downey’s presence on set opens the door for new scenes set before Tony’s death. In that scenario, flashbacks could tie directly into the film’s central conflict and might even help explain why Doom resembles Tony.

It is also worth remembering that Iron Man is already confirmed to be coming back in another form. At D23, Disney revealed that Downey will reprise Tony Stark for 2 Avengers Campus attractions at Disney California Adventure, both opening in 2028. That is a theme park return rather than a movie one, but it shows the studio is still comfortable letting Downey step back into the suit.

For now, the market and the rumors are all there is to go on. ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ opens on December 18, and ‘Avengers: Secret Wars’ follows a year later, which gives Marvel plenty of room to play with variants, flashbacks and multiversal surprises. The studio is not likely to spoil anything before the film arrives.

If the odds are any indication, a lot of people are betting that Marvel has at least 1 armored surprise up its sleeve. Whether that turns out to be a variant, a flashback or simply wishful thinking, the answer will arrive in theaters soon enough.

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