Ariana Grande's 'Focker-In-Law' and Disney's 'Hexed' Are Neck and Neck in the Thanksgiving Box Office Race

Thanksgiving has become one of the most reliable weekends on the movie calendar, and Disney has owned it in recent years. ‘Moana 2’ in 2024 and ‘Zootopia 2’ in 2025 each grossed more than $100 million over their first 3 days, according to Boxoffice Pro, and they helped push the holiday box office to some of its highest totals ever. That is a tough act to follow for anyone opening this year.

This year’s slate is quieter, but it isn’t empty. Disney Animation is betting on an original story instead of a sequel, while Universal and Paramount are reviving a comedy franchise that went quiet 16 years ago. Both films arrive on November 25, which sets up a surprisingly close family-movie showdown.

According to Deadline, ‘Focker-In-Law‘ and ‘Hexed’ have each hit tracking with a forecast of $40 million to $50 million over the 5-day holiday stretch. The identical range makes this one of the tightest Thanksgiving matchups in years, with 2 very different films going after the same crowds. Even the frontrunner may not be either of them, since Lionsgate’s ‘The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping’ is in its second weekend and has a shot at winning the 5-day frame.

The tracking details reveal where each film’s strength lies. For ‘Hexed‘, women are the strongest group in first-choice interest, and Deadline says that figure is higher than for ‘The Wild Robot’, which opened to $35.8 million over 3 days, ‘Elemental’ at $29.6 million and ‘Elio’ at $20.8 million. Tickets have been on sale for 2 weeks, and the film is reportedly pacing ahead of the $40.5 million 5-day Thanksgiving debut of ‘Encanto’.

‘Focker-In-Law’ draws a broader crowd. Deadline says first-choice interest is strong with women over 25, women under 25 and men over 25. Overall first choice is ahead of ‘Practical Magic 2’, which opened to $30 million over 3 days, and ‘Freakier Friday’ at $28.5 million.

Welcome to the family. Now step up and see if you pass our lie detector test. 🚨 Get the Focker In-Law Detector Popcorn Bucket at select Regal locations starting November 24, while supplies last. 🎟️Tickets are on sale NOW: https://t.co/HygVEUEZNy https://t.co/grYd0PQ5Sa
— Regal (@RegalMovies) November 5, 2026

The headline projections still sit below the monster numbers of recent Thanksgivings. Deadline notes that 2024 was the biggest Thanksgiving ever at the box office, with all titles grossing $424.9 million from Wednesday through Sunday, while last year ranked fifth at $290.3 million. ‘Moana 2’ still leads the list of top 5-day Thanksgiving openings at $225.4 million.

This year’s frame lacks a blockbuster on that scale, with no new ‘Wicked’ or Disney sequel on the horizon. That makes the holiday a test of whether original and legacy titles can fill the gap. A strong result for both films would show there is still an appetite for family fare that isn’t built on a sequel.

Other analysts are more bullish. Boxoffice Pro’s long-range forecast has ‘Hexed’ at $35 million to $45 million over 3 days and $50 million to $70 million over 5 days, which would beat the last 3 original Disney animated films to open on Thanksgiving weekend: ‘Encanto’, ‘Strange World’ and ‘Wish’. It puts ‘Focker-In-Law’ at $30 million to $40 million over 3 days and $45 million to $65 million over 5 days.

The earlier films give a useful yardstick. ‘Meet the Parents’, ‘Meet the Fockers’ and ‘Little Fockers’ opened to $28.6 million, $46.1 million and $30.8 million, respectively, though none of them debuted on Thanksgiving weekend. Through 3 movies, the series has earned $1.16 billion worldwide.

A world of witches is calling…Disney’s #Hexed is in theaters November 25 https://t.co/f0msei9xJn
— Disney Animation (@DisneyAnimation) October 12, 2026

‘Focker-In-Law’ reunites Ben Stiller as Greg Focker and Robert De Niro as Jack Byrnes, with Teri Polo, Blythe Danner and Owen Wilson also returning. The story follows Greg and Pam’s son Henry, who decides to marry a strong-willed woman played by Grande, a former FBI hostage negotiator named Olivia Jones. The trailer even recreates the franchise’s famous lie detector scene, this time with Grande in the hot seat.

‘Hexed’ is Walt Disney Animation’s 65th feature and follows a teenage girl named Billie, voiced by Hailee Steinfeld, who discovers a talent for magic with her cautious mother Alice, voiced by Rashida Jones, along for the ride. The cast also includes Jodie Foster, Walton Goggins, Tracey Ullman and Stephen Fry. A new animated short, ‘Lilo & Scratch’, will play with the film in theaters.

Thanksgiving openings rarely live or die on the first weekend alone, since families spread their moviegoing across several days. If audiences respond well to ‘Hexed’ and ‘Focker-In-Law’, both could keep playing through December. For now, the dead heat in the tracking numbers is the story, and the final result will depend on which film families choose to see first.