‘You Can See Everything’ Is Now the Heavy Favorite to Win Best Documentary at the Oscars

Documentaries rarely become cultural events, and even fewer turn into box office stories. ‘You Can See Everything’ has managed both, and it has done it with a premise that sounds almost impossible on paper. The A24 release has spent weeks dominating conversation online, and the awards circuit is now catching up to the hype.

The film follows Theranos founder Elizabeth Holmes during her final 34 days of freedom before entering federal prison. It was unveiled at the Telluride Film Festival, where word spread about a nearly three-hour screening from Canadian comedian Nathan Fielder and director Lance Oppenheim. From there, it only grew.

The commercial numbers are unusual for the genre. It grossed $15 million on 855 screens in its opening weekend, the second-best opening ever for a documentary. In 2 weeks of release, it had grossed $45 million at the box office.

Now the awards conversation is hardening into numbers. Prediction-market odds from Kalshi put the chance of ‘You Can See Everything’ winning Best Documentary at the Oscars at 69%. The nearest rival, ‘NAZA’, sits at 22%, while ‘Once Upon a Time in Harlem’ trails at 6%.

That is a commanding lead in a category that has humbled plenty of favorites. It is also worth remembering that market odds reflect crowd sentiment, not Academy votes. They do show how decisively momentum has swung toward Fielder and Oppenheim’s film.

Earlier in the cycle, the picture looked very different. ‘Once Upon a Time in Harlem’ entered one September week as the consensus frontrunner before sliding to 12%. The race has shifted dramatically as the fall festival circuit introduced fresher contenders.

Recent awards results have added fuel. ‘You Can See Everything’ won all 5 categories in which it was nominated at the 11th Critics Choice Documentary Awards, including best documentary feature and directing for Fielder and Oppenheim. The competition in the top category included ‘NAZA’, ‘Once Upon a Time in Harlem’, ‘Rehearsals for a Revolution’ and ‘Remake’.

Those wins come with a caveat. Over the first 10 years of the awards, the winner has gone on to win the Oscar for Best Documentary Feature only twice, with ‘O.J.: Made in America’ in 2016 and ‘Summer of Soul’ in 2022. A sweep is impressive, but it has not been a guaranteed ticket to the Oscar stage.

The film’s ambitions may extend beyond its home category. A24’s For Your Consideration page lists it in both the Best Picture and Best Documentary categories at the 99th Academy Awards. No documentary has ever been nominated for Best Picture, and the film remains an awards-season campaign rather than an Oscar nominee.

There is a surprising twist in how analysts are framing the race. Some observers think it may have a better chance of landing a Best Picture nomination than winning over voters in the Academy’s documentary division. That branch has a history of ignoring commercial successes, so it is possible the film would not even be nominated.

That tension is what makes the 69% figure so interesting. Prediction markets are betting on the film winning the documentary prize, while insiders keep one eye on whether the documentary branch will fully embrace a genre-bending crowd-pleaser. Both things can be true at once.

The teaser trailer ‘YOU CAN SEE EVERYTHING,’ a documentary by Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim. Thirty-four days before she’s sent to prison, Elizabeth Holmes invites a skeptical film crew to document her every move. In theaters this October. https://t.co/LHRvYLXULH

— Film Updates (@FilmUpdates) September 7, 2026

Part of the appeal is that the film defies easy categorization. Reviewers have called it the best-reviewed movie of the year, and it has launched a thousand memes. That blend of critical acclaim and internet-scale conversation is rare for any film, let alone a nonfiction one.

It also helps that audiences have turned out in numbers usually reserved for narrative features. The film is nearly 3 hours long, yet its box office staying power has been a talking point. That combination has made it difficult for awards voters to ignore.

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