‘Avengers: Doomsday’ Box Office Tracking Eyes a Record-Breaking Debut, and ‘Dune: Part Three’ Could Make It Historic

Marvel has spent the past few years trying to prove that audiences still show up for its biggest events. This summer, one of its films delivered an answer that shook up the record books. Now the studio’s next tentpole is being measured against that benchmark before a single ticket has been torn.

‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’ earned $360 million domestically, topping the $357 million opening of ‘Avengers: Endgame’ in 2019. Variety noted that it and ‘Endgame’ are the only 2 movies ever to earn $300 million in a single weekend. The result also helped deliver the biggest weekend ever for North American movie theaters, with an estimated $430 million in total ticket sales.

Fresh tracking suggests ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ is heading for similar territory. Box Office Theory’s latest scenarios have the film tracking for a domestic debut of $340 million to $369 million-plus, which could beat the $360 million record on its own. Paired with ‘Dune: Part Three’, the same weekend is on track for a record-breaking combined opening of $440 million-plus.

‘AVENGERS: DOOMSDAY’ is currently tracking for a $340M-369M+ debut at the domestic box office: • Potentially beating ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s domestic opening record of $360M alone • On track with ‘Dune: Part 3’ for a record breaking domestic opening weekend with a combined $440M+ (via: https://t.co/tIoWcTeJw0)

— Avengers Updates (@AvengersUpdated) November 13, 2026

Tracking numbers at this stage vary widely, and this latest range sits in the middle of the pack. Global Box Office projects a domestic opening of $260 million to $300 million, while tracker AnthonyJPHer has forecast an opening weekend between $425 million and $450 million. One tracker compilation noted a $400 million opening was “in play” per Boxoffice Pro.

Advance sales explain the optimism. The film generated more than $50 million in domestic ticket pre-sales with more than 3 months still to go before its December release. It has also reportedly crossed $125 million in global presales, up from the $100 million mark it passed on October 6.

For context, ‘Avengers: Endgame’ still holds the global opening record. Its $1.22 billion worldwide debut remained unscathed even after ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’ finished with $932 million. Some estimates suggest ‘Doomsday’ could top $1 billion worldwide in its first weekend.

Both films open on December 18, a collision fans have nicknamed “Dunesday.” According to EmpireCity Box Office, presales suggest ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ will win the weekend by a ratio of roughly 3.2 to 1 or even 4 to 1 over ‘Dune: Part Three’. That doesn’t mean the sci-fi epic is struggling.

One tracker is projecting a domestic opening of $100 million or more for ‘Dune: Part Three’, and believes it has a real shot at beating the $124.5 million opening of ‘The Odyssey’. On Polymarket, the leading outcome for its opening weekend recently was $130 million or more, with a 41% chance. Those numbers would be a huge start for a franchise that has never crossed $100 million in an opening weekend.

The IMAX split also shapes the contest. ‘Dune: Part Three’ secured an exclusive 3-week IMAX window, meaning ‘Doomsday’ can’t screen in that format in the US during its opening stretch. Disney responded with a newly created “Infinity Vision” designation. The split could help both films reach different audiences on the same weekend.

Tracking is not a result, and the caveats are significant. Huge advance sales can also hint at a front-loaded opening, which could make the first weekend look bigger than the long-term run. Analysts keep pointing out that presales may not translate directly into opening weekend results.

Marvel’s recent history adds another layer of uncertainty. ‘Thunderbolts*’ was one of the biggest flops of the summer 2025 box office, and titles like ‘Captain America: Brave New World’ got dismal reviews. The size of the ‘Doomsday’ opening could depend on whether casual moviegoers show up alongside the faithful.

He used to be different. Avengers: Doomsday arrives in theaters everywhere December 18. Get your tickets now: https://t.co/J5PUbxvAkc https://t.co/OUutSMZneq

— Marvel Studios (@MarvelStudios) August 15, 2026

Even so, the signs point to an enormous start. A $360 million record would require ‘Doomsday’ to land in the upper half of the current range, but several trackers are already placing it there. If it succeeds, the weekend could rewrite the record books for a second time in a single year.

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