‘Avengers: Doomsday’ Leads a High-Stakes Box Office Duel With ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’, but the Web-Slinger Isn’t Done Yet

Few movies have ever set the bar as high as ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’. The Tom Holland film opened July 31 to $360 million domestically, breaking the all-time record previously held by ‘Avengers: Endgame’ at $357.1 million. It also posted $932 million globally, the second-best worldwide opening behind ‘Endgame’s $1.2 billion.

The film set records everywhere it went. It posted the biggest Thursday previews ever at $72 million and the biggest opening day at $169.8 million. It later became the highest-grossing movie ever at the domestic box office, passing ‘Star Wars: The Force Awakens’, and crossed $2 billion worldwide.

That sets up an awkward question for the studio that made ‘Endgame’. ‘Avengers: Doomsday‘ arrives Dec. 18 with the Russo brothers back in the director’s chair and Robert Downey Jr. as Doctor Doom. Can it take the crown back?

‘Avengers: Doomsday’ leads ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’ in the race for 2026’s biggest opening weekend, according to traders on Polymarket⁠.com pic.twitter.com/dCxnpWGSlK

— ScreenTime (@screentime) October 1, 2026

According to Polymarket, ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ leads ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’ in the race for 2026’s biggest opening, with the market giving the Marvel Studios event film 54% and the Sony film 43%.

One detail is worth flagging. The post frames the race as the biggest opening weekend, but the Polymarket chart in its screenshot is titled “Which movie has biggest opening week in 2026?” ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’ already holds the opening-week record too, with $510 million in its first 7 days. These are market odds, not official forecasts, and they can swing quickly.

The chart tells a dramatic story. Polymarket’s market page shows ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ peaking at 86% back on April 28, then falling as Spider-Man’s real-world numbers came in. The trading shows ‘Brand New Day’ spiking around the time of its release before ‘Doomsday’ climbed back into the lead.

The tracking for ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ has been eye-popping, though the range is wide. Global Box Office has projected a domestic opening of $260 million to $300 million, while The Hollywood Reporter’s early tracking pointed to $200 million to $250 million or more. Some forum-based trackers have speculated about $400 million to $450 million, though that remains speculative and well outside official studio tracking.

Presales have been a major talking point. Deadline noted that ticket presales for ‘Doomsday’ crossed $50 million domestically three months out. World of Reel reported that the film was tracking 67% ahead of ‘Brand New Day’ on its second day of tracking, though it was also much further from its release date at that point.

The film’s competition could matter, too. ‘Dune: Part 3’ reportedly has a hold on IMAX screens during the same release window. Interestingly, ‘Brand New Day’ also set its records without IMAX, as it was boxed out of those screens by Christopher Nolan’s ‘The Odyssey’.

He used to be different.

Avengers: Doomsday arrives in theaters everywhere December 18. Get your tickets now: https://t.co/J5PUbxvAkc pic.twitter.com/OUutSMZneq

— Marvel Studios (@MarvelStudios) August 15, 2026

Even with ‘Doomsday’ in the lead, ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’ has the advantage of actual numbers rather than projections. Its $360 million opening was 24.5 million admissions, and it topped the box office for 5 consecutive weekends. The all-time record for a domestic opening is a very large target, since only 2 movies in history have ever crossed $300 million in a single weekend.

‘Doomsday’ has a different challenge. Its budget is reportedly approaching $400 million, which means the film needs a massive start just to justify its price tag. World of Reel estimated the break-even point at around $1 billion globally.

There is also a Marvel angle that works in the film’s favor. Marvel Studios is on a mission to prove its biggest team-up still matters. After a few shaky years, ‘Doomsday’ has quickly become the most anticipated Marvel release in years, with both Downey and Chris Evans returning.

The Polymarket numbers will likely keep moving as new tracking, trailers and presale updates arrive. The market itself runs through the end of the year, and a final answer will not come until ‘Doomsday’ opens on Dec. 18. By then, one of the biggest box office duels of 2026 will finally be settled.

For now, the traders are leaning toward ‘Avengers: Doomsday’, but a 54% to 43% split is hardly a runaway. A record-setting Spider-Man film has given the Avengers a very big number to beat.

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