Betting Markets Think Tobey Maguire’s Spider-Man Is Swinging Into ‘Avengers: Doomsday’, But Is It Real?

Few casting questions have haunted Marvel fans quite like the Spider-Man one. Every time a new multiverse blockbuster looms, the same debate returns: which web-slinger shows up, and does Tobey Maguire come back for another round?

With ‘Avengers: Doomsday‘ arriving December 18, that question is louder than ever. And this time, people are putting real money behind their predictions.

Marvel has revealed an enormous ensemble for the film, including Avengers, the Fantastic Four, the New Avengers, Wakanda and heroes from the original X-Men movies, with Robert Downey Jr. as Doctor Doom. Yet no Spider-Man actor appears on the announced cast list, whether Tom Holland, Maguire or Andrew Garfield.

Marvel’s March cast reveal made that absence even more conspicuous, with empty chairs bearing actors’ names and none of them Spider-Man’s. Some reports suggest the studio is simply protecting a spoiler, while others say Peter Parker may be saved for ‘Avengers: Secret Wars’.

JUST IN: 92% chance Tobey Maguire returns as Spider-Man in Avengers Doomsday https://t.co/Weoe5oKE49

— Kalshi (@Kalshi) October 10, 2026

The latest number comes from the prediction market platform Kalshi, where a market on whether Tobey Maguire will appear as Spider-Man in ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ now stands at 92%. Over $2 million has traded on that market, and its chart has climbed steadily in recent weeks.

The climb is notable. Kalshi’s market for Maguire sat around 71% earlier this year, hovered near 87% to 89% in August and reached 90% on October 1. At that point, Holland’s odds sat at 41% and Garfield’s at 21%, making Maguire the clear favorite.

Part of the momentum comes from insider chatter. One analysis in August said multiple insiders reported Maguire would appear in an expanded role as Spider-Man, which is why traders priced him so high.

A recent Marvel promotional reel also gave Maguire’s Peter Parker a special highlight following ‘Spider-Man: No Way Home’, which fans read as another hint. A separate rumor suggests his version could meet a tragic end at the hands of Doctor Doom in the first half of the film, though that remains unconfirmed speculation.

Holland’s side of the market has been more volatile. Earlier reports claimed he would not appear in ‘Doomsday’ but would have a huge role in ‘Secret Wars’, and others pointed to scheduling conflicts with Christopher Nolan’s ‘The Odyssey’.

Garfield has been blunt about his own status. In a GQ interview, he flatly denied that he and Maguire would return as Spider-Men in the film.

Fans remain skeptical, though. Garfield also denied being in ‘Spider-Man: No Way Home’ before appearing alongside Maguire and Holland, which means his denials carry less weight than they otherwise might.

He used to be different. Avengers: Doomsday arrives in theaters everywhere December 18. Get your tickets now: https://t.co/J5PUbxvAkc https://t.co/OUutSMZneq

— Marvel Studios (@MarvelStudios) August 15, 2026

It is worth being clear about what the 92% figure is, and what it isn’t. Marvel has not announced Maguire for ‘Avengers: Doomsday’, and he did not appear in the late-July trailer.

Prediction market prices reflect what traders believe, including rumors and fan hope, not verified information. Marvel may also never confirm the cast early, so the market may stay unresolved until opening night.

The market’s rules add another wrinkle. It applies only to ‘Doomsday’, so if Maguire appears in the sequel but not in this film at all, it resolves as no.

‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’ is scheduled to be the last MCU movie before ‘Doomsday’, which keeps the Spider-Man conversation alive. If Maguire does return, fans will almost certainly find out in theaters rather than through a studio press release.

Until then, the best evidence is the same mix of rumors, hints and market movement that has fueled the debate for months. Marvel has a long history of keeping its biggest surprises hidden until the lights go down.

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