‘Clayface’ Presales Momentum Stalls Just Before Release, and Tracking Now Points to a Softer Opening Than Hoped

DC Studios has bet on horror for its third big-screen outing, and the timing looked smart on paper. ‘Clayface‘ lands right before Halloween, in a year when horror has generated more than $1.1 billion at the domestic box office, with hits like ‘Obsession’, ‘Backrooms’ and ‘Resident Evil’ proving that audiences will turn out for scares.

But the film also carries pressure from the franchise it belongs to. ‘Supergirl’ opened to roughly $37 million to $38 million in June and finished with just $126 million worldwide, so every sign of weakness for ‘Clayface’ gets amplified. Its reported budget is around $40 million to $44 million, a modest number by superhero standards, but break-even estimates run from $80 million to $120 million depending on how the math is done.

The latest presales update adds a note of caution. A tracker following one theater chain says ‘Clayface’ had good momentum on Monday but stalled with only small growth over the last stretch before opening, and now projects a preview night of about $3.5 million and an opening weekend of $18 million to $20 million.

The numbers are a mixed bag. ‘Clayface’ is now running 62% behind ‘Supergirl’ for opening weekend, which is an improvement from the roughly 80% gap reported about a week ago. But it has lost ground against ‘Resident Evil’, which it now trails by 71% after being 66% behind earlier, and it sits 82% behind ‘Evil Dead Burn’ for opening weekend.

The tracker’s own read is that ‘Clayface’ is trending a little better than a traditional comic book movie, but is not performing like a horror film. He considers ‘Resident Evil’ the closest comparison, and that is where the projection comes from.

The benchmarks are demanding. ‘Resident Evil’ opened to $60 million from 3,684 theaters in September, a franchise record that beat projections in the $40 million to $50 million range. ‘Evil Dead Burn’ debuted to $13.7 million in July from 3,004 theaters, a softer result, which is why the gap looks so large in presale terms.

That helps explain the range of forecasts. Variety projected $25 million to $35 million, Boxoffice Pro had the film between $25 million and $30 million earlier in the week, and Box Office Theory’s latest weekend forecast sits at $15 million to $23 million. The $18 million to $20 million tracking figure falls squarely in that lower band.

The review embargo lifted on October 21, one day before Thursday previews, and the response has been mixed to positive. The film holds about 73% to 74% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 59 on Metacritic, which is hardly a disaster, but also not the kind of glowing buzz that tends to lift late presales. The tracking projection was set before those reviews landed.

There are positives. Early tracking found that only 32% of people were aware of the film, but among those who knew about it, 21% said they planned to see it on opening weekend, which is nearly double the norm. That suggests a passionate core audience that could help with word of mouth.

Watch the first trailer for #Clayface. The new DC horror film is in theaters October 23. https://t.co/gqrrtJSou5

— Rotten Tomatoes 🍅 (@RottenTomatoes) April 22, 2026

Early international numbers have also been measured. In Italy, ‘Clayface’ opened in seventh place on its first day, while in France it opened outside the top five, and in South Korea it landed behind a Japanese animated film and a local release. Variety had projected $20 million to $25 million overseas from 76 markets for a global opening of $45 million to $55 million.

Competition at home won’t help either. A24’s documentary ‘You Can See Everything’ is expanding to roughly 2,600 venues and could challenge for the top spot, while ‘Street Fighter’ enters its second weekend and ‘Wildwood’ arrives as counter-programming.

Presale tracking is a guide, not a verdict. Horror films often rely heavily on walk-up business, and a Halloween-weekend release has built-in advantages that don’t always show up in advance sales. A reported budget in the $40 million to $44 million range also means the film doesn’t need to be a blockbuster to avoid a major loss.

Still, the next few days will show whether ‘Clayface’ can outrun its tracking or whether DC’s horror experiment will start modestly. Either way, the weekend will be an important read on how far the DCU can stretch beyond traditional superhero fare.

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