Johnny Depp’s ‘Ebenezer’ Box Office Tracking Climbs as Strong Presales Give Paramount a Reason to Smile

Johnny Depp’s return to a major studio lead has been one of the more closely watched stories of the holiday movie season. ‘Ebenezer,’ a new adaptation of Charles Dickens’ ‘A Christmas Carol’ in which he plays Ebenezer Scrooge, marks his first major studio role in nearly 8 years. With opening weekend almost here, the box office tracking is starting to move in the film’s favor.

Paramount is releasing the film on November 13, and it is also styled as ‘Ebenezer: A Christmas Carol.’ It is a departure for director Ti West, who is known for the recent horror trilogy of ‘X,’ ‘Pearl’ and ‘MaXXXine.’ The result is a gothic take on a story that has been remade almost every decade.

The supporting cast includes Rupert Grint, Andrea Riseborough, Sam Claflin, Daisy Ridley, Arthur Conti, Ellie Bamber, Henry Lloyd-Hughes, Charlie Murphy, Tramell Tillman and Ian McKellen. One report described the film as treating the ghostly visits less like moral lessons and more like genuine horror. That pairing of a crowded ensemble and a horror director helps explain the curiosity around it.

TheFlatLannister on BOT: Bumping up Ebenezer projection to $20M-$23M OW as weekend pace has been quite good at TC3. Still looking at ~$1.5M previews. Ebenezer is 30% behind Masters of the Universe OW, 56% behind Disclosure Day OW, 35% ahead of End of oak street OW.
by u/EcstaticPublic9939 in boxoffice

The latest update to the tracking came from a Box Office Theory tracker. The tracker now projects ‘Ebenezer’ to open between $20 million and $23 million after strong weekend presales, with around $1.5 million expected from previews. The weekend pace has been described as quite good, which is why the number was bumped up.

The same tracker put the opening-weekend pace about 30% behind ‘Masters of the Universe’ and 56% behind ‘Disclosure Day,’ but 35% ahead of ‘End of Oak Street.’ Those comparisons place ‘Ebenezer’ in the middle of the pack. It is not a blockbuster pace, but it is comfortably ahead of at least 1 recent release.

Box Office Theory’s domestic opening forecast range is $20 million to $27 million, while traditional studio tracking sits at $20 million. One forecaster’s prediction moved from $20.3 million to $21.3 million, with the worst case scenario probably in the late teens. The picture is steady, with the numbers drifting slightly upward as release day approaches.

‘Ebenezer’ has a reported net budget of $38 million, which is lower than the $50 million to $60 million budgets of some of Depp’s 2010s flops. It also carries a reported $50 million marketing budget, highlighted by Depp’s San Diego Comic-Con appearance, where he stayed in character as Scrooge. Those numbers explain why even a modest opening can still be good news.

TheWrap noted that on that budget level, the film could be a modest success for Paramount. The projection is for a similar overseas launch to the domestic one. If that holds, the global opening would roughly double the domestic figure.

The expectations look small next to Depp’s peak years. Three ‘Pirates of the Caribbean’ films and an ‘Alice in Wonderland’ remake grossed more than $4 billion combined worldwide between 2006 and 2011. ‘Mortdecai’ later grossed only $37.3 million on a $60 million budget, and ‘Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales’ made $794.8 million compared with $1.04 billion for ‘On Stranger Tides.’

That history is why a $20 million opening is being framed as a comeback signal and not as a failure. The hope is a different kind of run. As a ‘Christmas Carol’ adaptation, ‘Ebenezer’ could last as a gothic-tinged holiday offering if nostalgia builds around Depp.

Think you know his story? Think again. Johnny Depp is Ebenezer Scrooge. The spirits arrive in the official new trailer for EBENEZER – only in theatres November 13. https://t.co/cb6p9JBq9C

— Ebenezer (@ebenezermovie) October 1, 2026

‘Ebenezer’ will not have the weekend to itself. Amazon MGM’s ‘How to Rob a Bank,’ starring Nicholas Hoult and directed by David Leitch, opens with a $60 million budget. Sony’s ‘Ghost Soldier’ is also in the mix, and both are hoping to rival the second weekend of ‘Godzilla Minus Zero.’ The following weekend, ‘Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping’ could squeeze the film out of the conversation.

Even so, forecasters see Depp’s Scrooge as the frontrunner, with one predicting it will take the top spot at the box office. Depp’s next Hollywood film is ‘Day Drinker,’ co-starring Penélope Cruz, for Lionsgate. A solid ‘Ebenezer’ run would give that project, and his wider return, a stronger starting point.

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