'Love of Your Life' Star Margaret Qualley Is Back on Top of the Next Bond Girl Race, and the Odds Are Hard to Ignore

The search for the next 007 has quietly turned into one of the biggest casting guessing games in Hollywood. Denis Villeneuve is directing the film and Steven Knight is writing it, and Amy Pascal and David Heyman are producing for Amazon MGM Studios. With a 2028 release targeted and production expected to start in 2027, attention has already spread beyond the leading man to the Bond girl role, where Margaret Qualley’s name keeps coming up.

It will be the first Bond film developed under Amazon MGM’s creative control, after longtime producers Barbara Broccoli and Michael G. Wilson stepped back from the franchise last year. The project also serves as Villeneuve’s follow-up to ‘Dune: Part Three’.

The leading man question is still officially unanswered, though the rumors are flying. Showbiz411’s Roger Friedman says word on the street is that Callum Turner has the job, while Robert Pattinson and Nicholas Hoult have reportedly joined the race through screen tests. Amazon MGM Studios has not confirmed any casting.

Into that vacuum, prediction markets have stepped in. On Kalshi’s market for which actress will be cast as the Bond girl, Qualley is once again the favorite at 48%, with Anya Taylor-Joy at 26% and Sydney Sweeney at 15%. The chart tracking the race has had plenty of ups and downs, and Qualley’s line has climbed sharply in recent days.

Qualley has held the favorite spot on and off for months, which makes the latest surge feel like a return to form. At one point, Kalshi’s own newsletter had Taylor-Joy leading at 65%, well ahead of Qualley at 29% and Sweeney at 19%. At the end of October, Qualley was at 39%, so her number has climbed by 9 points in about 2 weeks.

The pattern shows how quickly sentiment shifts when the casting process is still wide open. Prediction markets reflect trader sentiment rather than inside information, so none of it reflects what the studio has decided.

Other betting sites paint a similar picture, though the numbers differ. BetOnline lists Qualley at 33%, with Sweeney and Taylor-Joy tied at 25%, Florence Pugh at 17% and Zendaya at 13%. UK bookmakers tracked by Oddschecker had Qualley as the 7/4 favorite, with Taylor-Joy at 3/1 and Sweeney at 4/1.

It is also worth remembering how these markets work. Bond movies tend to have more than one significant female character, so more than one actress on these lists could land a role. On Kalshi, a Yes outcome is triggered if an actress is officially announced or publicly credited as a principal female character opposite Bond.

Taylor-Joy shot to fame with ‘The Queen’s Gambit’ and has since starred in ‘The Northman’, ‘The Menu’ and ‘Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga’. Sweeney is best known for ‘Euphoria’, and she previously shared the screen with Qualley in ‘Once Upon a Time in Hollywood’.

Part of her appeal is a résumé that mixes prestige and star power. Qualley earned a Golden Globe nomination for ‘The Substance’, and she is also known for ‘Poor Things’ and ‘Maid’. Most recently, she appeared opposite Jacob Elordi, Guy Pearce and Josh Brolin in Ridley Scott’s ‘The Dog Stars’.

There is even a Bond connection already. Qualley was front and center in a Bond-themed musical number at the 2025 Oscars, and one analysis argues that Villeneuve is known for favoring prestige casting, which makes Qualley stand out on the list.

For now, none of this is official. Amazon MGM Studios has not announced a confirmed principal cast for the film, so Qualley’s possible involvement remains an intriguing prospect rather than an established development.

The wait may not be long. Villeneuve joked at the LACMA Art and Film Gala on Nov. 7 that he was about to reveal the next Bond, then stopped because Pascal might have a heart attack. Pascal told Deadline in August that the end of the year is a good bet for finding out who the new Bond is, and Deadline has said a decision could come by the end of November, possibly before Thanksgiving. Fans may soon learn whether the markets have been reading the room correctly.