‘Melania’ Defies Expectations as New Box Office Forecast Signals Surprise Opening in North America

Melania Trump’s new documentary is shaping up to be a surprise at the North American box office after early expectations pointed to a rough debut. According to industry tracking reported by Hollywood trade sources, the film is now projected to earn around $8 million in its opening weekend, a sharp jump from earlier forecasts.

Before release, many analysts expected the film to struggle. Initial estimates placed the opening closer to $3 million, and some theater owners even warned it could fall lower after slow advance sales and online chatter about empty screening rooms.

By Friday afternoon, however, studio estimates shifted. New numbers showed the documentary pulling in between $8 million and $9 million from nearly 1,800 theaters, putting it on track for one of the strongest openings for a non-concert documentary in years.

The film, directed by Brett Ratner, follows Melania Trump in the weeks leading up to Donald Trump’s second presidential inauguration. Its launch included a high-profile premiere in Washington, D.C., attended by President Trump and political supporters. That visibility appears to be helping ticket sales, especially in conservative-leaning areas where grassroots promotion has been strong.

Amazon MGM Studios holds the rights to the project after paying $40 million for worldwide licensing, the highest known price ever paid for a documentary. The company also backed the release with a major marketing push, spending tens of millions more to promote the film. According to industry insiders, Amazon views the release as part of its broader effort to compete more seriously in theaters, even though the film is expected to arrive on Prime Video within weeks.

Critical response has not helped the film’s image. Reviews have been largely negative, and the documentary has faced heavy scrutiny since its announcement. Even so, audience interest appears to be outweighing the poor reviews, at least for opening weekend.

At the box office, Melania is competing with Sam Raimi’s thriller Send Help and Mark Fischbach’s Iron Lung. Send Help is currently leading the pack with a strong start driven by solid reviews and star power, while Iron Lung is drawing fans from Fischbach’s large online following. Despite the crowded field, Melania is expected to land in third place, ahead of Jason Statham’s new action movie Shelter, which is underperforming.

Elsewhere on the chart, family and holiday releases like Zootopia 2 and Avatar: Fire and Ash continue to bring in steady numbers, though neither is challenging the top new releases this weekend.

MELANIA, the film, exclusively in theaters worldwide on January 30th, 2026. pic.twitter.com/n2kloQ4JwW

— MELANIA TRUMP (@MELANIATRUMP) December 17, 2025

Melania’s early box office jump shows how much attention and identity-driven marketing can still move tickets, even when reviews are harsh. It also highlights how political interest and loyal fan bases can rival traditional promotion. Still, long-term success is another question, especially once the film hits streaming.

What do you think? Does this kind of opening prove that grassroots support now matters more than critics and big ad campaigns? Share your thoughts in the comments.