Polymarket Traders Say ‘Michael’ Has Slim Odds of Being 2026’s Highest-Grossing Movie

Interest around the musical biopic Michael is not going away even after its release.

The movie is now in its theatrical run, and attention has shifted toward how it might perform in the long term. While it has already earned a solid worldwide total of around $585 million, that figure is expected to level off as its cinema run winds down.

With competition building from other major releases planned for 2026, traders and analysts are now less confident about its chances of finishing as the year’s top-grossing film.

Data from prediction market platform Polymarket suggests that expectations have cooled significantly. Traders there currently assign Michael only a very small chance of reaching the top of the 2026 global box office rankings. Instead, most predictions favor upcoming franchise films and large studio releases that typically dominate worldwide earnings.

Several competing titles are already being viewed as stronger contenders. Among them are Spider-Man: Brand New Day, Avengers: Doomsday, and several major animated sequels such as The Super Mario Galaxy Movie and Toy Story 5. Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey is also expected to be a major summer release that could pull large audiences globally.

While musical biopics have performed well in recent years, industry watchers note that they often struggle to outperform large franchise films on a worldwide scale. That challenge appears even bigger in a crowded release year like 2026, where multiple high-budget projects are scheduled close together.

Another factor influencing sentiment is the public perception of Michael Jackson’s legacy. Over the years, documentaries and allegations have led to ongoing debate about his personal life, which some observers believe could affect audience turnout in certain markets.

Based on current Polymarket figures, Michael sits far behind the leading contenders for the top box office spot in 2026. With its theatrical run nearing its end, most predictions suggest it is unlikely to close the gap against the major franchise films expected to dominate the year.

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