‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’ Set to Surpass ‘Michael’ in Its First Weekend at the Global Box Office

Box office tracking has been on a wild ride all week for ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day,’ with projections climbing almost every few hours as new numbers roll in from theaters around the world. What started as a cautiously optimistic forecast from Sony has turned into one of the most closely watched box office stories of the year.

That caution looks increasingly out of step with reality. Early tracking had the studio playing it conservative with a domestic opening just shy of $200 million, while independent trackers pushed estimates as high as $250 million to $300 million, numbers that already would have made this one of the biggest debuts in Spider-Man history.

Now the film has blown well past even those bullish projections. ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’ crossed the $200 million mark at the global box office by Thursday alone, and it’s now tracking for a worldwide opening weekend somewhere between $950 million and $1.05 billion, a range that would put it in serious contention to become the highest-grossing movie of the year in its opening weekend alone, surpassing even megahit ‘Michael.’

That kind of trajectory becomes even more remarkable when compared to the rest of Spider-Man’s own box office history. ‘Spider-Man: No Way Home’ remains the franchise’s high-water mark, having opened to $260.1 million domestically and $587.2 million globally back in 2021 en route to a final worldwide total of $1.9 billion.

The domestic side of this story has been just as explosive. Thursday preview screenings alone reportedly generated $72 million, officially breaking the all-time previews record previously held by ‘Avengers: Endgame’ at $60 million, while first-day domestic numbers pushed past $167 million, setting up a potential opening weekend that could challenge ‘Endgame’s’ all-time domestic record of $357 million.

Sony’s own internal tracking had been notably more cautious than outside prognosticators throughout the lead-up to release, projecting a domestic start closer to $195 million and a global opening around $465 million. Those numbers now look like significant underestimates given how the film has actually performed once it hit theaters.

Context helps explain just how rare this level of performance actually is. Only nine films in history have ever opened above $200 million domestically in a single weekend, and only ‘Avengers: Endgame’ has ever cracked $300 million, meaning ‘Brand New Day’ is now positioned to join one of the most exclusive clubs in box office history regardless of exactly where its final numbers land.

International markets have played a major role in fueling that momentum. Sony had projected between $275 million and $300 million from overseas territories heading into release, though early results suggest the film is on pace to significantly exceed even those more optimistic estimates once every region reports in.

With reviews holding strong and virtually no major competition standing in its way through the rest of the summer, ‘Brand New Day’ now has every ingredient in place to turn this opening weekend into one of the defining box office moments of the year. The only real question left is just how close to the billion-dollar mark it actually lands by Sunday.

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