‘The Odyssey’ Star Matt Damon Is Currently the Betting Market’s Frontrunner to Win Best Actor at the 2027 Oscars
Awards season predictions have found a new home in prediction markets, where traders put real money behind their guesses well before nominations are even announced. That shift has turned platforms like Kalshi into a genuinely useful early barometer for how Hollywood insiders and film buffs are reading the field, months ahead of the actual Academy Awards ceremony.
That market has now zeroed in on the 2027 Best Actor race, and one performance in particular has separated itself from the pack. According to Kalshi’s live trading data, Matt Damon currently sits as the clear frontrunner to win Best Actor for his role in Christopher Nolan’s “The Odyssey,” trading at 31% likelihood as of the most recent figures, putting him roughly eight times ahead of Timothée Chalamet’s 4% odds for “Dune: Part Three.”
Tom Cruise sits in second place on the current winner market at 27%, keeping the race tighter at the top than the gap between Damon and Chalamet might suggest. Cruise’s odds are tied to “Digger,” a dark comedy directed by Alejandro González Iñárritu, whose Best Picture wins for “Birdman” and “The Revenant” have made him a filmmaker with genuine Oscar pedigree behind the camera.
Damon’s momentum in the market appears closely tied to “The Odyssey’s” own awards trajectory. According to The Cinema Group’s coverage of the race, the film is already being tracked as a strong contender for Best Picture itself, a dynamic that tends to lift the fortunes of a film’s lead actor as well, since Best Picture frontrunners often carry their stars deeper into major acting categories.
That same outlet described the broader Best Actor field as still very much in flux beneath the top names. Their analysis characterized the current board as “three near-locks and a genuine scrum for the last two seats,” noting that both “The Odyssey” and “Digger” hadn’t yet reached wide audiences at the time of that report, meaning the numbers could shift considerably once general moviegoers actually see both performances.
Beyond Damon, Cruise, and Chalamet, the broader nomination market includes several other names still in contention. According to Yahoo’s coverage of a separate Kalshi nomination bet, John Malkovich and Cruise have swapped positions as frontrunners for securing a nomination outright, while other contenders include Sebastian Stan for “Fjord,” Jaafar Jackson for “Michael,” and Ryan Gosling for “Project Hail Mary.”
That same report noted the historical volatility these races tend to carry, pointing back to the 2026 ceremony as a cautionary tale. Timothée Chalamet’s performance in “Marty Supreme” had been the early frontrunner that year before Michael B. Jordan’s late-breaking work in “Sinners” ultimately swooped in to take the prize, a reminder that early market leaders don’t always hold their position once the full field of contenders actually screens.
For both Damon and Cruise, a win in this category would carry extra significance beyond the trophy itself. Neither actor has ever won a competitive acting Oscar despite decades of celebrated work, meaning whichever of the two ultimately prevails would be claiming a long-overdue first acting statue for an already storied career.
With the 99th Academy Awards still scheduled for March 14, 2027, there’s plenty of time left for these odds to shift as more of the season’s contenders actually reach theaters and audiences weigh in.
Who do you think will win Best Actor at the 2027 Oscars?
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