'The Substance' Star Margaret Qualley Takes the Lead in the Race to Become the Next Bond Girl

Few casting stories generate as much speculation as the search for a new 007. The question isn’t limited to who will wear the tuxedo, either, since the leading lady attracts nearly as much attention. With the franchise in a rebuilding phase, every shift in the betting markets gets treated like a headline.

The next film is being built from the ground up, which has left fans free to imagine almost any combination of stars. Prediction markets have only fueled that fun, turning casting rumors into a daily scoreboard. The latest update has a clear new name at the top of the list.

Margaret Qualley is currently the favorite to be cast as the next Bond girl, according to Kalshi. The market gives her a 39% chance, ahead of Anya Taylor-Joy at 26% and Sydney Sweeney at 14%. The chart tracking the race shows plenty of ups and downs, with Qualley’s line climbing steadily toward the end.

None of this is official. Amazon MGM hasn’t announced any casting for the film, and prediction markets reflect trader sentiment rather than inside information. Still, the movement shows how quickly opinion can change in a race that’s still wide open.

Margaret Qualley is currently the favorite to be cast as the next Bond girl https://t.co/jA1HTWWTIj
— Kalshi Film (@Kalshi_Film) October 31, 2026

The picture looked very different not long ago. In late August, Kalshi traders had Taylor-Joy at 65%, far ahead of Qualley at 29% and Sweeney at 19%. By late October, Qualley had pulled into the lead with 37% on that same market, up from the earlier figure.

Other betting sites have offered similar snapshots. BetOnline listed Qualley at 33%, with Sweeney and Taylor-Joy tied at 25%, Florence Pugh at 17% and Zendaya at 13%. UK bookmakers tracked by Oddschecker had Qualley as the 7/4 favorite, with Taylor-Joy at 3/1 and Sweeney at 4/1. The Hollywood Reporter pointed out that Bond films often feature more than one major female role, so more than one name on these lists could end up in the movie.

Qualley is the daughter of actress Andie MacDowell, and she has built a career that spans prestige television, indie films and mainstream hits. Her credits include ‘The Leftovers’, ‘Maid’, ‘Once Upon a Time in Hollywood’, ‘Poor Things’ and ‘Honey Don’t!’. Her Golden Globe-nominated performance in ‘The Substance’ turned her into a bona fide movie star.

She’s also currently in theaters opposite Jacob Elordi, Guy Pearce and Josh Brolin in Ridley Scott’s ‘The Dog Stars’. That mix of art-house credibility and mainstream visibility is one reason oddsmakers see her as a plausible fit for a franchise looking to blend prestige and spectacle.

Denis Villeneuve is directing the next Bond movie, with Steven Knight writing the screenplay and Amy Pascal and David Heyman producing for Amazon MGM Studios. The studio has reportedly been targeting production by the end of this year or early next year, with a 2028 release in mind. Casting director Nina Gold has been brought in to help find the new 007.

The search for Bond himself is reportedly down to a handful of actors. The Hollywood Reporter has said Jack Lowden, Callum Turner and Jack O’Connell are expected finalists, and Kalshi traders have Lowden as the leading choice with 64%. A creative committee including Villeneuve, Gold, Knight and the producers is said to be making the final decision.

Timing is a big factor. Villeneuve has been busy completing ‘Dune: Part Three’, and one industry newsletter has reported that he won’t commit to an actor until that film is locked. That suggests any announcement is likely some way off.

That uncertainty is also why the betting numbers have been so volatile. Early frontrunners have come and gone, and rumors about Elordi, Turner and others have repeatedly changed expectations. A leader in a prediction market today can easily be overtaken tomorrow.

An interesting wrinkle is that Taylor-Joy, who has been hovering near the top of the Bond girl markets, is also part of ‘Dune: Part Three’ as Alia Atreides. Fans have noted that her past work with Villeneuve could give her a natural advantage. Whether that carries any weight in the real decision-making is anyone’s guess.

For Qualley, the appeal may lie in her range. She can handle intense physical performances as well as the sharp, stylish tone that the franchise tends to favor. That combination has made her a popular choice in fan casting discussions.

For now, the market simply reflects where public opinion stands on the last day of October. A new trailer, a casting rumor or a surprise announcement could quickly change the picture. Until the studio speaks, the list of contenders will keep shifting.