Tom Cruise’s ‘Digger’ Is Barreling Toward One of the Lowest Openings of His Career

Tom Cruise has built a career on being the rare movie star who can still get audiences into theaters. ‘Top Gun: Maverick’ and the ‘Mission: Impossible’ series turned him into the face of the big-screen experience. That track record makes the ‘Digger’ box office story so jarring, because the numbers keep getting worse.

The film was supposed to be a bold change of pace. Directed by Alejandro G. Iñárritu, it casts Cruise as a blowhard oil tycoon who triggers an ecological disaster, and Warner Bros. positioned it as an awards play. Tracking tells a story of steady erosion, from a $20 million to $30 million range in a long-range forecast on Sept. 11 to $18 million to $20 million, and then to $12 million to $15 million after Variety said projections were revised down.

‘DIGGER’ is now on track for a $6M–$7M domestic opening weekend.

• Budget was $180M

• One of the biggest bombs of Tom Cruise’s career pic.twitter.com/LU2LTlhwls

— The Hollywood Handle (@HollywoodHandle) October 2, 2026

On Oct. 2, The Hollywood Handle reported that ‘Digger‘ is now on track for a $6 million to $7 million domestic opening weekend. The account also pointed to a $180 million budget and called the film one of the biggest bombs of Cruise’s career. Other trackers have landed close by, with Film Updates citing $6 million to $9 million and Page Six reporting $8 million to $12 million.

The film earned just $1.2 million in Thursday previews, which Deadline described as soft everywhere. That trails the $3.1 million that ‘One Battle After Another’ made in previews before opening to $22 million. It did edge out the $770,000 that Francis Ford Coppola’s ‘Megalopolis’ earned in previews before opening to $4 million.

The comparison point is ‘Lions for Lambs.’ That 2007 drama opened to $6.7 million on a $35 million production cost, and Deadline lists it among Cruise’s lowest North American openings since 2000, alongside ‘Rock of Ages’ at $14.4 million and ‘Jack Reacher’ at $15.2 million. Gold Derby calls ‘Lions for Lambs’ the worst of his career, and a $6 million to $7 million ‘Digger’ would land right on top of it.

There is important context. Deadline noted that Cruise posted single-digit openings in his early days, such as ‘Rain Man’ opening to $7 million in 1988 at 1,248 theaters. But those were different distribution days when movies opened small and played long. A modern release in more than 3,300 locations is a very different test.

The cost is what turns a weak opening into a historic problem. The film was greenlit at $125 million, but four knowledgeable sources told Variety the budget climbed to between $160 million and $180 million after production ran over schedule. Warner Bros. disputes the higher figures.

Variety also reported that a film of this size would need a debut near $40 million to justify its cost. With about $100 million spent on marketing and exhibitors keeping roughly half of ticket sales, break-even is estimated near $350 million worldwide. Warner Bros. puts it at $300 million.

A new trailer for ‘DIGGER’ has been released.

In theaters October 2. pic.twitter.com/kTEeFZI14E

— Film Updates (@FilmUpdates) September 9, 2026

The competition isn’t helping. Amazon MGM’s ‘Verity’ posted $4.5 million in previews and is projected for $27 million to $30 million, and a Gold Derby chart has ‘Digger’ trailing ‘Resident Evil’ and ‘Heart of the Beast’ as well. Critics are split too, with ‘Digger’ holding a Rotten Tomatoes score around 52%, Cruise’s first rotten film since ‘The Mummy’ in 2017.

Reaction has been polarized. The Boston Globe called it the worst performance of Cruise’s career, while the London Evening Standard hailed it as a masterclass. Awards hopes have also dimmed, with Gold Derby moving the film outside its top 10 for Best Picture and Cruise to fourth for Best Actor.

The timing adds to the sting. ‘Digger’ is Warner Bros.’ last release as a standalone studio, arriving just days before Paramount’s $110 billion merger closes on Oct. 6. It also lands as reports say studio chiefs Michael De Luca and Pamela Abdy are on their way out.

Cruise’s next project is already scheduled, with ‘Days of Thunder 2’ filming in March 2027 opposite Anne Hathaway.

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