Polymarket Traders Don’t Expect ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ to Top This 2026 Box Office Rival

Box office expectations for Marvel’s next big crossover film are already being closely watched, even though Avengers: Doomsday is still some time away from release. According to prediction market data from Polymarket, traders are already weighing how the movie might perform compared to other major releases expected in 2026.

The Marvel Cinematic Universe once dominated global cinema in a way few franchises have ever matched. During the 2010s, the series of interconnected superhero films became a worldwide phenomenon, earning more than $18 billion across the decade. Much of that success came from the Avengers films, which brought together multiple heroes for large-scale crossover events that regularly broke box office records.

Since Avengers: Endgame, however, Marvel’s theatrical performance has been more uneven compared to its earlier peak. Now the studio is preparing for its next major team-up film, Avengers: Doomsday, which is expected to bring back several major characters from across the MCU. One of the most notable casting choices is Robert Downey Jr., who is set to return in a new role as the villain Doctor Doom.

Despite the strong interest surrounding the project, Polymarket traders currently believe another superhero film will outperform it at the 2026 box office. The prediction market is instead leaning toward Spider-Man: Brand New Day as the likely top earner.

Spider-Man has historically been one of Marvel’s most popular characters worldwide, with past films achieving major commercial success. The most recent entry in the franchise came close to the $2 billion mark globally, helping reinforce the character’s strong box office track record. Early attention for the upcoming film has also been significant, with reports of major engagement around its first trailer.

Timing is also seen as an important factor in the predictions. Spider-Man: Brand New Day is scheduled for release in July 2026, which would allow most of its theatrical run to fall within that calendar year. In contrast, Avengers: Doomsday is expected to arrive later in the year, meaning a portion of its box office earnings may fall outside the 2026 tracking window used by Polymarket.

According to Polymarket’s rules for the market, only domestic box office earnings within the 2026 calendar year will count toward the final outcome. This detail has influenced how traders are positioning their bets on the two films.

At present, Polymarket data shows Spider-Man: Brand New Day with a strong lead in expected box office performance for 2026, while Avengers: Doomsday trails behind by a significant margin. The gap has widened in recent months as sentiment has shifted more heavily toward the Spider-Man film.

Have something to add? Let us know in the comments!