‘Michael’ Set to Surpass ‘Super Mario Galaxy’ as the Highest-Grossing Movie of 2026
Box office milestones have come fast and furious in 2026, but few stories have been quite as unexpected as the one currently playing out between an animated video game sequel and a music biopic that critics largely panned. Both films have spent months trading blows on the global charts, each racking up records that seemed unthinkable when the year began.
Universal and Illumination’s ‘The Super Mario Galaxy Movie’ got there first, crossing the billion-dollar mark back in early June after nine weekends in theaters, becoming the first release of 2026 to hit that milestone. Not far behind was Lionsgate’s ‘Michael‘, the Antoine Fuqua-directed biopic starring Jaafar Jackson as his real-life uncle, which quietly built its own case as one of the year’s biggest surprises despite a rocky critical reception.
That race has now tightened to a photo finish. As of Monday, ‘The Super Mario Galaxy Movie’ held a lead of just under 8 million dollars over ‘Michael’ at the global box office, a gap so small that industry watchers are now openly debating whether the Jackson biopic will overtake the Nintendo sequel within days rather than weeks.
The numbers back up just how close this race has become. ‘Michael’ recently crossed its own billion-dollar threshold after twelve weekends in release, becoming the second film of 2026 to do so and marking the first time any Lionsgate release has ever hit that mark. With a current global tally north of 1.001 billion dollars, built from 371.8 million domestically and 629.8 million internationally, the film has already claimed the title of highest-grossing music biopic in history.
Despite trailing so closely, ‘Michael’ is not expected to overtake Mario immediately. Industry analysis suggests the shift likely won’t happen until sometime next week, or possibly by Sunday depending heavily on how the film continues to perform in Japan and Russia, two markets still delivering meaningful box office returns during the film’s later run.
Japan in particular has played an outsized role in pushing ‘Michael’ toward the finish line, given the country’s long-standing devotion to Jackson as a musical icon. The film’s cume in Japan alone has climbed past 35 million dollars, helping close the gap in a race that once looked entirely out of reach for a biopic facing mixed reviews at launch.
The achievement is especially notable given how modestly ‘Michael’ was expected to perform before release. Early tracking pegged its opening weekend domestically somewhere between 65 and 95 million dollars, but the film blew past those projections, ultimately debuting to roughly 97.2 million dollars in North America and more than 217 million dollars worldwide, instantly setting a new opening weekend record for a music biopic and easily surpassing prior benchmarks like ‘Straight Outta Compton’.
Lionsgate leadership has been vocal about what the milestone means for the studio. Motion Picture Group chair Adam Fogelson said in a statement that the film’s success reflected a phenomenal partnership with its filmmakers and cast, along with a successful collaboration with the Michael Jackson estate, adding that audiences turned the film into a cultural phenomenon in theaters around the world.
Director Antoine Fuqua echoed that sentiment, calling the billion-dollar milestone a deeply humbling moment that celebrated the dedication of the film’s entire producing and creative team. The reaction underscores just how unexpected this run has been for a film that entered theaters facing skepticism from critics over its decision to sidestep some of the more controversial chapters of Jackson’s life.
Which movie will finish as the highest-grossing film of 2026?
Whichever film ultimately claims the title of 2026’s highest-grossing release, the underlying story here is one of two wildly different box office paths converging at the top. One is a family-friendly video game adaptation riding on decades of built-in brand loyalty, and the other is a music biopic that turned modest expectations into a billion-dollar cultural moment almost entirely on the strength of audience word of mouth. Do you think ‘Michael’ will officially overtake ‘The Super Mario Galaxy Movie’ this week, and which film do you think deserves the crown? Let us know in the comments.
