‘The Odyssey’ Leads the Best Picture Race, but a Spanish Challenger Is Closing In Fast
Christopher Nolan has spent the summer proving that the big-screen epic is far from dead. His adaptation of Homer’s poem arrived as an R-rated, nearly three-hour blockbuster with a reported $250 million budget, and it has since become the biggest hit of his career. Now the awards conversation has caught up.
The film opened July 17 with $124.5 million domestically and $264.1 million worldwide, then held remarkably well, with a second weekend drop of just 27%. It has since grossed about $1.721 billion worldwide, passing ‘The Dark Knight Rises’ as Nolan’s highest-grossing movie ever and topping the $975.8 million made by ‘Oppenheimer’, which won 7 Oscars. It is also the first feature shot entirely on IMAX 70mm cameras, and it holds a 95% Rotten Tomatoes score.
Prediction markets have treated it as the Best Picture frontrunner since release. Kalshi currently prices ‘The Odyssey’ at 54%, with Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi’s ‘The Black Ball’ at 27% and a tie at 1%. Trading volume on the market sits near $6.8 million, and the chart went viral on X.
The 54% figure is healthy, but it is well below where the film was a month ago. Trader odds put ‘The Odyssey’ at 58% around a month ago and 59% on August 20, when ‘The Black Ball’ sat at 12%. The Kalshi board now shows ‘The Black Ball’ up 12 points, while ‘Dune: Part Three’ sits at 9% after a 4-point drop.
The market data doesn’t spell out why, but the challenger has been building steam. ‘The Black Ball’ premiered at Cannes in May, where its directors won Best Director, and Netflix later won the bidding war for its release. The Hollywood Reporter described it as an epic about gay men in war-torn Spain and a big Netflix hope for the Oscars, and Variety’s TIFF People’s Choice predictions rank it second.
The film is a nearly 160-minute epic spanning decades of gay history in Spain. It is set for a Spanish theatrical release on September 25, and it is among the three films shortlisted by Spain for the Best International Feature race. Early reviews were split on its scale, according to one market analysis.
‘The Odyssey’ still has plenty in its favor. Traders also put it well ahead in several nomination markets, including Adapted Screenplay at 87%, Best Original Score at 88% and Best Achievement in Casting at 87%. Awards Daily’s early Best Picture rankings also put the film in first place.
It isn’t universally adored. The film received some criticism for deviations from the source material and for Nolan’s writing, while some cultural critics objected to certain casting choices. Even so, the overall reception has been overwhelmingly positive.
Presentamos el tráiler de #LaBolaNegra, la esperada película de Javier Calvo y Javier Ambrossi, ganadores del premio a la mejor dirección en el Festival de Cannes. Es una película original Movistar Plus y Suma Content Films en coproducción con El Deseo y Le Pacte y con la… pic.twitter.com/zY7lqtrabf
— Movistar Plus (@MovistarPlus) July 16, 2026
This win would give Nolan back-to-back Best Picture wins as a producer, following ‘Oppenheimer’. Whether or not that framing catches on, it shows how much Nolan’s narrative is baked into the conversation.
There is plenty of time for things to shift. The 99th Academy Awards take place on March 14, 2027, and festivals, critics’ groups and guild precursors have barely started. Markets can also swing fast, as last year’s race showed when ‘One Battle After Another’ crossed the 75-cent threshold early before winning Best Picture in March.
A film by Christopher Nolan shot entirely with IMAX film cameras. Watch The Odyssey trailer and experience the film in theaters 7 17 26. pic.twitter.com/Lqap9dFI09
— The Odyssey Movie (@odysseymovie) December 22, 2025
Other contenders remain in play too, including ‘Dune: Part Three’, ‘Project Hail Mary’ and Martin McDonagh’s ‘Wild Horse Nine’. Prediction market odds reflect trader sentiment rather than the Academy’s actual voters, so they are best read as a snapshot rather than a verdict.
For now, though, the picture is clear enough: a summer mega-hit versus a Cannes-backed international epic.
Which movie has your vote for Best Picture right now?
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