Jack Lowden’s Next James Bond Odds Hit a Record High, and the Race to Replace Daniel Craig Is Heating Up
The hunt for the next James Bond has been one of the longest-running guessing games in entertainment. Fans have spent years fan-casting, debating and dissecting every rumor since Daniel Craig’s final outing in ‘No Time to Die’. Now the search has finally moved from speculation into something that looks like a real race.
Amazon MGM Studios announced that the search for the new actor had begun, with casting director Nina Gold on board to find him. Denis Villeneuve is directing, Steven Knight is writing, and Amy Pascal and David Heyman are producing, with the film reportedly aimed at a 2028 release. The studio has declined to comment on specifics, which has left the rumor mill running at full speed.
The latest chatter centers on prediction markets. The odds that Jack Lowden will be the next James Bond have hit a record high on Kalshi, reaching 65%. Callum Turner sits at 37% and Josh O’Connor at 17% in the same market.
Those figures are not a confirmation, and Amazon MGM has not announced anyone. Still, the climb has been dramatic. Lowden was a fringe name in early August with odds around 3.5%, and he has since become the clear market favorite.
The surge began when podcaster Richard Osman said an insider had told him Lowden was being strongly considered. That single mention sent the odds climbing into the 30s within days. Soon afterward, Lowden’s ‘Slow Horses’ co-star Gary Oldman said in an interview that the role had been cast but not announced, and that he was keeping his fingers crossed for his colleague.
By early October, Lowden was only narrowly ahead of Turner, at 44% to 39%. The next big jump came after a Deadline exclusive reportedly confirmed he was one of the finalists screen testing for the part, which pushed his odds from 39% to 62%. They settled back to 58% before reaching the new high.
Prediction markets are not the only place where Lowden leads. Bookmakers tracked by the platform Oddschecker have him as the favorite at 8/13, an implied probability of about 62%. Turner follows at around 25%, with O’Connor at about 13%.
The Kalshi market has also priced in the other major Bond casting question. Anya Taylor-Joy is listed with a 25% chance of being named the next Bond girl, though bookmakers have Margaret Qualley leading that race. With final screen tests reportedly getting underway, the odds could keep shifting before any official word arrives.
For viewers who know him mainly from television, Lowden is a Scottish actor who rose to fame through a mix of stage and screen work. He plays River Cartwright in Apple TV’s ‘Slow Horses’, a role that has earned him Emmy, BAFTA and Golden Globe nominations. The show is also notable because it already places him in the world of British intelligence.
His film credits include ‘Dunkirk’, ‘Mary Queen of Scots’ and ‘Fighting with My Family’, along with ‘Benediction’, in which he played Siegfried Sassoon. He also won a Laurence Olivier Award for best supporting actor in 2014. Born in 1990, he fits the younger profile that reports have said Amazon is looking for.
Whoever lands the role will be stepping into one of cinema’s most scrutinized jobs. Villeneuve has called Bond sacred territory, and producer Amy Pascal has said the next actor has to feel stirring, exciting and different. That is a tall order for any performer, which is part of why the casting process has attracted so much attention.
Other names have floated through the discussion over the past year, including Jacob Elordi, Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Harris Dickinson and Idris Elba. Each has had a moment in the headlines, but none has held the market’s attention the way Lowden has in recent weeks. His rise has also been unusually steady compared with the sudden spikes that often fade.
For now, the situation remains unofficial. Prediction markets reflect trader sentiment rather than inside knowledge, and the studio has been clear that it will not comment during casting. An announcement could change everything overnight.
If the odds are right, though, the long wait for a new 007 may be nearly over. Lowden’s mix of prestige credits, a spy-drama pedigree and growing industry buzz has made him the man to beat in a race that now seems to be entering its final stretch.
Do you think Jack Lowden would make a great next James Bond?
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