Jack Lowden Surges as the Prediction Market Favorite for the Next James Bond as Screen Tests Reportedly Begin

Few casting stories in Hollywood have lasted as long as the search for Daniel Craig’s successor. It has been 5 years since ‘No Time To Die,’ and Amazon MGM has kept the identity of the next 007 under tight wraps. That patience has turned the hunt into a public guessing game, with fans, bookmakers and online traders all trying to read the tea leaves.

The latest name to dominate that conversation is Jack Lowden, the star of ‘Slow Horses.’ His profile has been rising since late summer, helped by comments from his co-stars and a string of insider rumors. His River Cartwright cliffhanger, which aired only days ago, has made the timing feel even more charged.

Now the prediction markets are making a statement. Jack Lowden is the leading contender on Polymarket US to be announced as the next James Bond, with the market sitting in the high 30s and up 9 points in a single day, on more than $1.6 million in trading volume. Early Thursday his price was 27%, and by Friday it had climbed to about 36%.

The move comes as the Bond casting process appears to be reaching its final stage. One odds site reports that final screen tests are getting under way in London, as early as today, with actors tested on stunts, presence on camera and dialogue. It lists Lowden as the 8/13 favorite with bookmakers, an implied chance of about 62%.

Callum Turner also gained, rising from 8% to 21% on Polymarket in the same period, while the ‘No Bond chosen’ outcome dropped from 26% to 19%. That suggests traders believe an announcement is getting closer. The race is increasingly being described as a 2-man fight between Lowden and Turner, with Jack O’Connell as an outsider.

Lowden’s rise has been gradual. His odds sat around 24% in late August, then climbed after podcaster Richard Osman said he had heard Lowden’s name linked to the search, while stressing that he was only being strongly considered. Those odds spiked again after Gary Oldman, his ‘Slow Horses’ co-star, said in September that he’d heard a rumor the part had been cast and that his fingers were crossed for Jack.

Oldman later clarified that he doesn’t know who has the job and was simply hoping it’s Lowden. By then the market had already reacted, with Lowden reaching 49% at one point. His name was also left out of the ‘Slow Horses’ season 8 announcement, which fueled even more speculation, though there is no official indication that he’s leaving the show or has been cast.

Lowden’s wife, Saoirse Ronan, was asked about the rumors and said the speculation hasn’t been a big topic at home, noting that he is having a good time filming ‘Slow Horses.’ She didn’t confirm or deny anything. His director on the show has also suggested six seasons prove he’d be a good fit.

Not everyone is convinced. One former co-star has joked that Lowden, who is 36, may be too old for the part. Still, the actor has been getting steady attention from critics and fans who see him as a natural fit for a more grounded and unpredictable 007.

What Amazon MGM Has Confirmed

Officially, the studio has said very little. Denis Villeneuve is set to direct, Steven Knight is writing the script and Amy Pascal and David Heyman are producing. The studio has said it is taking its time out of care and deep respect for the franchise, and Pascal has said the next Bond has to be stirring, exciting and different.

The film is expected to shoot in 2027, with a release currently expected in 2028. Pascal has suggested an announcement is likely by the end of 2026, which is why the Polymarket market is set to resolve on December 31 at 11:59 p.m. ET. If no actor is officially named by then, ‘No Bond chosen’ wins.

It’s worth remembering that prediction markets reflect trader sentiment, not inside knowledge. Lowden’s price has risen and fallen sharply over the past few months, and other names have taken the lead at different points, including Turner, Jacob Elordi and Harris Dickinson. A single rumor can move the numbers overnight.

For now, the only certainty is that the casting decision, when it comes, will be one of the biggest entertainment stories of the year. Until Amazon MGM speaks, everything else is speculation.

Have something to add? Let us know in the comments!