‘Avengers: Doomsday’ Could Smash the All-Time Opening Weekend Record: Here’s the Math

Hollywood loves a record, and the box office world has been in a rare frenzy over one film’s chances of breaking the biggest ones. With ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ still weeks from release, analysts are already arguing over how high its debut could climb.

Marvel’s fortunes have looked shaky at various points in recent years, but 2026 has turned that narrative around. The Avengers will assemble again after a seven-year hiatus, and early demand suggests audiences have been waiting.

Now a Boxoffice Pro podcast has put a striking question on the table: are we on the verge of the first-ever $400 million domestic opening weekend? The outlet stressed that it is by no means a guarantee, but definitely in play for ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ this December.

The target is already high. ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’ holds the current record with a $360 million domestic opening ($360,091,572 to be exact), edging past the $357.1 million debut of ‘Avengers: Endgame’ in 2019. The film also earned roughly $932 million globally in its first weekend.

That means a record-breaking ‘Doomsday’ would mark the second time in a single calendar year that Marvel resets its own opening weekend record. ‘Brand New Day’ also broke the opening-day mark with about $168 million, topping ‘Endgame’s’ $157 million.

The early numbers are staggering. Disney has confirmed that domestic advance sales topped $50 million, and a tracking firm said the film passed $100 million in global presales back on October 6. More recent reports say presales have since crossed $125 million.

The ramp began on day one. When premium-format tickets went on sale on July 20, the film pulled in $16.5 million across roughly 1,000 domestic theaters, a record for an opening day of sales.

Are we on the verge of the first ever $400M domestic opening weekend? It’s by no means a guarantee, but definitely in play for AVENGERS: DOOMSDAY this December. https://t.co/v5Q6p6xQC9

— Boxoffice Pro (@BoxOffice) October 26, 2026

One report claimed ‘Doomsday’ had already sold 92% of the preview ticket haul of a previous Marvel release, and projected a domestic opening around the $400 million mark.

Forecasts vary widely. Global Box Office projects a domestic debut between $260 million and $300 million, which would be enormous but still short of the record. Some analysts have gone as low as $230 million to $260 million domestically, with worldwide openings closer to $600 million.

At the other end, tracker AnthonyJPHer has forecast around $120 million in Thursday previews, $205 million on opening day and a weekend between $425 million and $450 million. The forecaster even suggested that $400 million is comfortably on the table. Prediction markets have followed the buzz, with one market pricing a record at 43% as of October 25.

Worldwide projections run just as wild. Some outlets say the film could open to $1 billion globally, with a ceiling reportedly as high as $1.5 billion.

He used to be different. Avengers: Doomsday arrives in theaters everywhere December 18. Get your tickets now: https://t.co/J5PUbxvAkc https://t.co/OUutSMZneq

— Marvel Studios (@MarvelStudios) August 15, 2026

There is one big complication. ‘Doomsday’ won’t get IMAX at launch because ‘Dune: Part Three’, opening the very same day, has locked the entire IMAX footprint exclusively for three weeks. That’s a consequence of Denis Villeneuve shooting the film with IMAX cameras.

Even so, ‘Doomsday’ has continued to outperform expectations across the other premium formats. It’s a reminder that the film’s opening is being built without the most coveted screens in the business.

The shared date has become a story of its own. Fans have dubbed the pairing “Dunesday,” and trackers expect it could become one of the largest combined weekends ever. Dark Horizons says it could potentially surpass the $402 million collective total made in the weekend ‘Endgame’ opened.

Many analysts expect the weekend to set a new overall domestic record regardless of whether ‘Doomsday’ tops $400 million. Presales also suggest its opening could be three to four times larger than that of ‘Dune: Part Three’.

The stakes are high on the spending side, too. According to one industry insider, the crossover reportedly carried a $400 million budget with another $300 million devoted to marketing.

Whether presale momentum converts into tickets will be decided on December 18. Until then, the debate will continue, with the same data pointing to everything from a very large hit to a historic one.

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