‘Avengers: Doomsday’ Presales Are Surging Again as Trackers Say It’s Closing In on ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’

Box office tracking has become its own spectator sport, and nothing has fueled it this year quite like Marvel’s 2 big releases. ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’ reset the record books over the summer, and now the studio’s next event film is being measured against it almost daily. That scrutiny has only grown as ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ presales keep climbing.

Part of what makes this film unusual is how early it started selling tickets. Premium-format sales opened in July, with general sales following around 4 months before release, according to reports. That long runway makes comparisons messy, but it also gives trackers an enormous amount of data to dig through.

The latest round of numbers comes from a tracker posting on the Box Office Theory forum, whose update has been circulating on Reddit’s box office community. The tracker described strong growth in 2 of the sampled theater groups over the past few days. In one sample, ‘Doomsday’ Saturday sales have matched ‘Brand New Day’ at 8 days before release, with Sunday matching 5 days out.

A second sample shows Saturday matching 10 days out and Sunday matching 6. A third lines up at 7 days out for Saturday and 5 for Sunday. The tracker also noted that Friday sales looked even stronger, running at roughly 4 times what ‘Brand New Day’ had on its first end-of-day tally, though he cautioned that some of the recent growth may have been fueled by new promotional news.

TheFlatLannister on Avengers: Doomsday – Pretty amazing growth at TC1 and TC3 over the last few days. TC1 SAT has matched BND T-8 and SUN has matched BND T-5. TC2 SAT has matched BND T-10 and SUN has matched BND T-6. TC3 SAT has matched BND T-7 and SUN has matched BND T-5.
by u/chanma50 in boxoffice

These figures are unofficial and come from limited samples rather than studio-reported totals. They compare sales at the same number of days before release, so a match at 8 days out means ‘Doomsday’ is now selling at the pace ‘Brand New Day’ had reached with 8 days left. It does not mean the film will gross the same amount on opening weekend.

Analysts have also pointed out that the comparison is imperfect. ‘Brand New Day’ began advance sales only 45 days before release, while ‘Doomsday’ tickets have been available for months. No major blockbuster has opened sales this early, so there is no clean benchmark.

Other numbers paint a similar picture of strong demand. The film sold $16.5 million in its first 24 hours of limited premium presales, roughly double the first-day total for ‘Deadpool & Wolverine’, according to Variety. Disney’s finance chief later said domestic presales had passed $50 million, with more than 70% tied to the new Infinity Vision premium format.

Tracking firm Global Box Office reported domestic presales above $65 million roughly 50 days before release. It also said worldwide presales crossed $100 million on October 6. Those figures come from trackers rather than the studio, so they should be treated as estimates.

Projections vary widely. Global Box Office has estimated a domestic debut of $260 million to $300 million, which would still fall short of the records set by ‘Avengers: Endgame’ and ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’. Endgame opened to $357.1 million, while the Spider-Man film took in about $360 million domestically and $932 million worldwide.

Other reports have been far more aggressive, with some pointing to a possible $1 billion global opening. Prediction markets have also leaned toward ‘Doomsday’ posting the year’s biggest opening weekend, partly because of timing. Treat the higher numbers cautiously, since early presales tend to spike at launch, cool off and then surge again in the final week.

The film opens on December 18, the same day as ‘Dune: Part Three’, a collision fans have nicknamed ‘Dunesday’. Both films are fighting over premium screens, and ‘Doomsday’ will not have IMAX access domestically. Marvel introduced Infinity Vision as a certification for premium large-format screens to fill that gap.

Variety has reported that premium showtimes for December 17 and 18 were already largely sold out in the US, with theaters adding more screenings for Christmas Day and beyond. That shows how strong demand is among the most dedicated fans. It also hints at a front-loaded opening, which could make the first weekend look bigger than the long-term run.

He used to be different. Avengers: Doomsday arrives in theaters everywhere December 18. Get your tickets now: https://t.co/J5PUbxvAkc https://t.co/OUutSMZneq

— Marvel Studios (@MarvelStudios) August 15, 2026

The most useful signals will arrive in the final 2 weeks before release, when presales traditionally accelerate. Trackers will be watching previews, Thursday night sales and the Friday-to-Sunday split closely. Reviews and word of mouth will then decide whether the early excitement carries into the weeks that follow.

For now, the numbers suggest the film is building momentum rather than fading, with the Box Office Theory update adding to that trend. Whether it can actually catch ‘Brand New Day’ is a question only opening weekend can answer.

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