‘Godzilla Minus Zero’ Is Tracking to Stomp the U.S. Box Office and Make Franchise History

Japanese cinema has been quietly rewriting the rules of the North American box office, and the biggest monster of all is about to join the party. ‘Godzilla Minus Zero‘ arrives in U.S. theaters this Friday, and early tracking suggests it could do something no Japanese Godzilla film has done before. The sequel to an Oscar winner is entering the weekend with real momentum.

The original film, ‘Godzilla Minus One’, was a word-of-mouth phenomenon. It opened to $11.4 million in North America in early December 2023, finished third that weekend and went on to earn about $57.1 million in the U.S. and more than $116 million worldwide. It also won the Oscar for Best Visual Effects, the first Academy Award in the franchise’s history.

Now, the newest forecasts point to a much bigger debut. One tracking estimate has ‘Godzilla Minus Zero’ making between $23 million and $29 million this weekend and finishing No. 1 in America. That would reportedly make it the first foreign-language film to top the U.S. chart since ‘Chainsaw Man – The Movie’.

GODZILLA MINUS ZERO is tracking to be the #1 movie in America this coming weekend, making $23M-$29M. It’s the first foreign-language film to be #1 in the US since CHAINSAW MAN MOVIE. https://t.co/GCMyu739KW

— Global Box Office (@GlobalBoxOffice) November 3, 2026

Other forecasts have been slightly higher. Boxoffice Pro’s long-range forecast put the domestic opening at $25 million to $35 million, and a range from Box Office Theory has been cited at the same level. Tracking numbers have shifted since tickets went on sale, so the precise figure will not be clear until the weekend plays out.

Even at the low end, the numbers would be a big jump. The projection represents more than double what the first film made in its opening weekend. It would also be far and away the biggest North American opening for a Japanese Godzilla movie, and the first to top the box office over a full weekend.

The film is also part of a broader trend. Boxoffice Pro noted that Japanese imports, mostly animated, have been drawing North American ticket-buyers in unprecedented numbers. A live-action monster movie from Toho is now trying to ride that wave.

The weekend is not a lock. Warner Bros.’ animated ‘The Cat in the Hat’ also opens on November 6, and it has been tracking as a serious competitor for the top spot. Whichever film wins, the margin could be small.

There is also a question of scale. The franchise’s all-time box office leader remains ‘Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire’, which earned $572 million worldwide in 2024. ‘Godzilla Minus Zero’ is not expected to match that, but a strong opening would still put it in a category of its own among Japanese productions.

For context, Shin Godzilla held the record as the highest-grossing Japan-produced entry for seven years, earning $78 million worldwide, until ‘Godzilla Minus One’ surpassed it. The sequel is now aiming to raise that bar again. Some analysts have wondered whether it could challenge much larger global totals, though that would require a huge run.

The release strategy has been unusual. ‘Godzilla Minus Zero’ opened in Japan on November 3, Godzilla Day, and arrives in North America three days later, the first time a Japan-produced Godzilla film has had such a near-simultaneous launch. It is also the first Japanese production to be filmed for IMAX, and IMAX early-access screenings took place on Godzilla Day.

GKIDS, which Toho acquired in 2024, is handling distribution in North America. The film premiered at the New York Film Festival in September, and reviews have been strong, with critics praising its action and effects. That buzz has helped fuel the tracking increases.

The story picks up in 1949, two years after the first film, with Takashi Yamazaki returning as writer, director and visual effects supervisor. Ryunosuke Kamiki and Minami Hamabe return, and King Ghidorah joins the fight. The R rating and the IMAX focus have added to its appeal for genre fans.

The new trailer for ‘GODZILLA MINUS ZERO’ has been released. In theaters on November 6. https://t.co/sgaEXweerd

— DiscussingFilm (@DiscussingFilm) September 8, 2026

If the film does open at No. 1, it will make a statement about what American audiences are willing to watch. Subtitles have not been a barrier for recent hits, and a monster movie with a prestige pedigree is well placed to attract both casual moviegoers and cinephiles. It would also be a victory for Toho’s strategy of releasing the film worldwide in the same week.

Even if it finishes second, the numbers will be historic for the franchise. A debut in the $20 million to $30 million range would still be a major step up from its predecessor. The real test will come in the second weekend, when word of mouth shows whether it can keep growing.

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