‘The Odyssey’ Is Now the Clear Best Picture Favorite as Prediction Markets Rally Behind Nolan’s Epic

Christopher Nolan has never been shy about thinking big, and ‘The Odyssey‘ may be his biggest swing yet. Universal spent $250 million to make the R-rated mythological epic and another $125 million to market it, a staggering bet for any studio in the current climate.

The gamble paid off at the box office. The film opened to $124.5 million domestically and $264.1 million worldwide, Nolan’s biggest global debut ever, and it has since climbed to roughly $1.8 billion worldwide. That makes it the highest-grossing film in this year’s Oscar race.

Now the awards conversation is catching up. According to Kalshi, traders give ‘The Odyssey’ a 59% chance of winning Best Picture, well ahead of the documentary ‘You Can See Everything’ at 17% and the Spanish film ‘The Black Ball’ at 15%.

The lead has not been a straight line. When ‘You Can See Everything’ opened in theaters, its odds roughly doubled over the first week, reaching 32% and overtaking ‘The Black Ball’ for second place.

That surge has since cooled. ‘The Odyssey’ recovered from a dip into the 40s, and the film now sits comfortably in front, while the documentary has slipped back toward the middle of the pack.

The film arrived with enormous goodwill. It earned a 95% score on Rotten Tomatoes and an “A” CinemaScore, and Nolan already has an Oscar pedigree after ‘Oppenheimer’ won Best Picture and Best Director.

The staying power helped too. Its second weekend dropped by just 27% to $90 million, a rare feat for a tentpole that opens above $100 million, and Matt Damon’s turn as Odysseus has anchored the film’s momentum.

Gold Derby also considers the film a lock for nominations in Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Best Supporting Actor and Best Adapted Screenplay. Anne Hathaway is part of the Best Supporting Actress conversation, and the site has ‘The Odyssey’ on top of its Best Picture odds as well.

Directed by Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim, ‘You Can See Everything’ follows disgraced Theranos founder Elizabeth Holmes during her final days before prison. The 3-hour A24 documentary premiered as a secret screening at the Telluride Film Festival and later posted the largest documentary opening in 13 years with $15 million.

No documentary has ever been nominated for Best Picture, so history is on the line, though the film has already hit one snag. The Directors Guild ruled it ineligible for the guild’s top prize, which means it can only compete in the documentary category there.

‘The Black Ball’, known in Spanish as ‘La Bola Negra’, comes from directors Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi. The Netflix film won Best Director at the Cannes Film Festival and the People’s Choice Award at the Toronto International Film Festival, and it is considered a top contender for Best Picture and Best International Film.

Not every voice is on board with the coronation. Emily Wilson publicly panned the film, and Nolan hit back at critics in response, though Gold Derby noted that neither ticket sales nor awards prospects suffered as a result.

There is also a stubborn statistic working against the favorite. Gold Derby points out that the biggest box office hit among the Best Picture contenders has not won the top prize since 2009, so the film will need to buck a long streak.

The final trailer for Christopher Nolan’s ‘THE ODYSSEY’ has been released. In theaters on July 17. https://t.co/xn42TcX4aG

— DiscussingFilm (@DiscussingFilm) July 1, 2026

It is important to remember that these figures reflect market sentiment rather than votes, and plenty can change before the ceremony. Nominations are not expected until January, so campaigns, guild awards and critics’ groups still have time to reshape the race.

For now, though, the picture is clear. Nolan’s film combines critical acclaim, enormous commercial success and a director the Academy has already rewarded, which is a rare formula in an unpredictable field that still includes a record-setting documentary and a festival-circuit favorite.

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