‘Avengers: Doomsday’ Has Already Beaten ‘Avengers: Endgame,’ and It Hasn’t Even Opened Yet

Marvel Studios

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Marvel movies used to follow a simple rhythm: trailer, tickets, premiere, record. ‘Avengers: Doomsday‘ is rewriting that rhythm by selling seats months before a typical blockbuster would even start. Every few weeks, a new presale milestone lands, and each one gets compared with the biggest hits in recent memory.

The film reunites the Russo brothers with a sprawling ensemble that includes familiar X-Men faces, with Robert Downey Jr. now playing Doctor Doom. It arrives in the US on December 18, after a marketing push that has included premium-format tickets, trailers and a rerelease of ‘Avengers: Endgame‘ with a first look at the new film. That strategy appears to be working, and now a fresh number from Europe has fans talking.

According to Disney, ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ sold 118,000 tickets in its first 24 hours of presales in Germany. That beats the 105,000 tickets ‘Endgame’ sold in the same window in 2019, and it is more than any previous film from The Walt Disney Company Germany.

Presales in Germany opened on October 5 at noon at major chains, with the film opening on December 16, two days before the US. The first day was a major success for Disney, and it came more than two months before release. ‘Endgame’ had held the record for seven years, and its presales began roughly three weeks before its release.

Fans online described long waits to buy seats. One shopper said it took 45 minutes to secure tickets, and another said most showings were nearly sold out within two hours of the sale opening.

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It’s worth noting what the number does and does not mean. The comparison measures the first 24 hours of sales, not the final total, and ‘Endgame’ began selling tickets much closer to release. Cinema tickets are also considerably more expensive in Europe now than they were in 2019, which makes the record more notable in one sense but harder to compare in another.

Analysts have also pointed out that no blockbuster has opened presales this early, so nobody knows how well early tickets will predict the final result. Presales tend to spike when tickets go live, cool off and then surge again in the final week.

Germany isn’t the only market showing strong demand. Premium-format tickets went on sale on July 20 alongside the first trailer, and the film earned $16.5 million on its first day across roughly 1,000 domestic theaters, twice the first-day total of ‘Deadpool & Wolverine.’ Tickets then opened nationwide for all cinemas on August 14.

Domestic presales have crossed $50 million, a figure confirmed by Disney. Reports from box office trackers say global presales have passed $125 million, though that number is not officially confirmed. The film also became the fastest movie to pass $1 million in presales in both Brazil and the United Kingdom, and it is reportedly outselling ‘Endgame’ in several European countries, including Spain.

For all the excitement, forecasts are more measured than the headlines. Tracker Global Box Office has projected a domestic opening between $260 million and $300 million. That compares with $357.1 million for ‘Endgame’ and the record $360 million opening of ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day,’ which only began selling tickets about 45 days before release.

Some insiders have speculated about even bigger numbers, but those are estimates. ‘Endgame’ ultimately reached $2.9 billion worldwide after its original run and rereleases, which is the benchmark ‘Doomsday’ will be measured against.

The film opens on the same day as ‘Dune: Part Three,’ a head-to-head matchup that fans have nicknamed ‘Dunesday.’ ‘Dune: Part Three’ holds the entire IMAX footprint for three weeks, while ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ is leaning on Disney’s new Infinity Vision certification for premium large-format screens. Presale trackers suggest ‘Doomsday’s’ opening-weekend projection could be 3.2 to 4 times larger than that of its rival.

After years of talk about superhero fatigue, the early numbers suggest that audiences still turn out for events. Germany’s record is one data point rather than proof of a final result. But coupled with strong presales elsewhere, it points to a film that has captured the public’s attention long before release.

The real test arrives in December, when the tickets turn into actual weekend grosses. Until then, every new milestone adds to the sense that Marvel is aiming for something big.

Do you think ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ can match or surpass ‘Avengers: Endgame’s’ box office success?

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