‘Avengers: Doomsday’ Presales Overseas Match ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’ and Leave ‘Dune: Part Three’ in the Dust

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Marvel fans have spent the past few weeks checking ticket numbers the way other people check the weather before a big trip. The latest reading comes from Bulgaria, where ‘Avengers: Doomsday‘ presales are drawing attention from box office watchers well beyond the country’s borders.

The timing makes the story even more interesting. The film is still more than 10 weeks from its December 18 release, and it will open the same day as Denis Villeneuve’s ‘Dune: Part Three’, a showdown fans have nicknamed Dunesday. Every early data point from either camp is being read as a verdict on who wins the holiday frame.

That brings us to Bulgaria. Box office watcher Simionski posted an update on BOT claiming that ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ has matched ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’ at the same point in the countdown (T-10) and has left ‘Dune: Part Three’ behind. ‘Dune’ is reportedly still matching Christopher Nolan’s ‘The Odyssey’ at T-20.

Simionski believes the extended opening weekend record in Bulgaria, currently held by ‘Furious 7’ with 102,000 admissions, has a decent chance of falling. If that happens, he predicts the market could see another film this year reach 300,000 admissions. He bases that on not seeing a multiplier below 3x given how the calendar is laid out.

He also stressed how unusual the timing is. Even event films normally start presales no more than 3 to 4 weeks before release, which makes the pace of these two titles almost 3 months out stand out. If both keep it up, he suggests December 18 could become one of the biggest weekends of all time in Bulgaria, leading into a strong holiday period.

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The Bulgarian numbers fit a pattern that has been building for weeks. Disney opened general advance sales for ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ about 4 months before release, while ‘Brand New Day’ began selling tickets only 45 days out. After just 2 days of presales, TheWrap reported that ‘Doomsday’ was running roughly 65% ahead of the pace ‘Brand New Day’ set in its first 2 days.

In the United States, Disney CFO Hugh Johnston announced in September that ‘Doomsday’ had passed $50 million in presales three months out. More than 70% of those sales were for premium formats marked with Infinity Vision, Disney’s label for premium large-format screens outside IMAX. Global Box Office has since put the domestic total above $55 million.

The UK is reportedly showing similar heat. Fan-site reports claim ‘Doomsday’ passed $1 million in presales within 24 hours, which would be the UK’s highest first-day presale total in 5 years.

The comparison to ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’ matters because that film set a very high bar. It opened to $360 million domestically and $932 million worldwide, both records or near-records. It has since grossed about $2.5 billion globally.

In Bulgaria, according to The Numbers, ‘Brand New Day’ opened to $251,504 across 102 screens and had grossed $1,254,094 as of an October 2 report. Matching that film’s presale pace this far out is a strong signal for a market where Marvel’s momentum is already proven. Whether it holds is the open question.

The numbers come with caveats. No major blockbuster has opened presales this early, so nobody knows how much early tickets will predict the final result. Some analysts have called the comparison with ‘Brand New Day’ imprecise for that reason, and ‘Dune: Part Three’ has the advantage of exclusive IMAX access through the holidays.

The Warner Bros. and Legendary film has its own strong signals. Its IMAX 70mm tickets have been selling out quickly, even though wide presales were only just beginning when those reports surfaced. Disney, meanwhile, is leaning on Infinity Vision to steer Marvel fans toward other premium screens.

Still, a single market showing ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ ahead of ‘Dune: Part Three’ is the kind of data point fans love to share. It also fits the broader story that the Avengers are back in demand, whatever the final totals turn out to be. With 10 weeks still on the clock, there is plenty of time for the trend to hold or fade.

Which movie do you think will come out on top this holiday season?

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