‘Dunesday’ Is Shaping Up to Be the Biggest Moviegoing Weekend in Film History

Warner Bros. / Marvel Studios

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Remember Barbenheimer? ‘Barbie’ took $356 million worldwide in its opening weekend while ‘Oppenheimer’ earned $180 million. That dual release drove the biggest UK cinema weekend since 2019 and the fourth-largest US box office weekend on record. Ever since, studios and fans have been hunting for the next double feature that could do the same.

This December, 2 blockbusters are about to collide on their own. Marvel’s ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ and Denis Villeneuve’s ‘Dune: Part Three’ both open on December 18, and fans have already nicknamed the clash Dunesday. The stakes are high on both sides: Warner Bros. is reportedly counting on ‘Dune: Part Three’ to save a difficult year, while Disney needs ‘Doomsday’ to prove Marvel’s audience hasn’t gone away.

Advance ticket sales now suggest that Dunesday could be bigger than any moviegoing weekend before it. Based on early presale tracking, the weekend is shaping up as the biggest in film history. Analysts have also said the December 18-20 weekend is positioned to become the most pre-sold in box office history.

The numbers behind that claim are striking. ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ has reportedly crossed $125 million in global presales, up from the $100 million mark it passed on October 6, more than 2 months before release. Disney has confirmed that domestic advance sales topped $50 million.

The early pace was just as strong. Premium-format tickets went on sale on July 20, months earlier than normal. The film earned $16.5 million in its first 24 hours from about 1,000 domestic theaters.

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‘Dune: Part Three’ is not far behind in its own lane. It reportedly earned around $10 million domestically on the first day of wider presales, a franchise best. It also set a record first day at London’s BFI IMAX, and its IMAX 70mm screenings have already produced dozens of sellouts.

The film will also have IMAX theaters exclusively through the holidays. One analysis noted that ‘Doomsday’ leads in raw presale volume, while ‘Dune: Part Three’ dominates the high-margin IMAX 70mm ticketing. Past openings give a sense of the franchise’s growth: the first ‘Dune’ debuted with $41 million and ‘Dune: Part Two’ opened with $82.5 million.

Not every analyst sees an even fight. One tracker has said ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ is outselling ‘Dune: Part Three’ by a ratio of between 3.2-to-1 and 4-to-1. That doesn’t mean ‘Dune’ is struggling, since its presale numbers are still strong for a trilogy finale.

Opening weekend projections for ‘Doomsday’ vary widely. One tracker projects a domestic debut of $260 million to $300 million. That would be enormous but still short of the $357.1 million set by ‘Avengers: Endgame’ and the roughly $360 million record opening of ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’. Other reports say the film is tracking for a worldwide opening north of $1 billion.

Boxoffice Pro has asked whether the industry is on the verge of the first-ever $400 million domestic opening weekend, calling it by no means guaranteed but definitely in play. As analysts keep pointing out, presales may not translate directly into opening weekend results.

There is one major wrinkle compared with Barbenheimer. ‘Barbie’ and ‘Oppenheimer’ succeeded partly because they appealed to largely different audiences. ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ and ‘Dune: Part Three’ share a much larger crossover fanbase, which raises questions about how much they might eat into each other’s ticket sales.

Even so, many analysts expect the weekend to set a new overall domestic record regardless of how the individual openings land. In that sense, the real winner may be the combined weekend itself. If both films live up to their presales, December 18 could be a date moviegoers remember for years.

Which movie will you watch first on Dunesday?

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