Fans Are Betting Big on Who Dies in ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ and Loki Leads
Marvel fans have never needed much of an excuse to speculate wildly about character fates, but this year’s approach to guessing who survives the next big team-up has taken on an entirely new form. Instead of just trading theories on social media, fans are now putting real money behind their predictions.
That shift reflects a broader trend that’s taken hold across the entertainment landscape in recent months, with prediction markets increasingly becoming a barometer for anticipated blockbuster releases. Ahead of this winter’s biggest Marvel event, that trend has zeroed in on one particularly morbid question.
A Polymarket prediction market titled “Who will die in Avengers: Doomsday?” has attracted nearly $20,000 in trading volume as fans wager on which characters won’t survive the film’s climactic battle. According to the current odds, Thor sits atop the list with the highest death probability at 65%, followed by Loki at 67% and Steve Rogers at 56%.
The market also shows meaningful activity around several other major characters, with Captain America, played by Sam Wilson, sitting at 39%, Doctor Strange at 30%, and Ant-Man tied at 30% as well. Doctor Doom, the film’s central antagonist played by Robert Downey Jr., holds a notably low death probability at just 13%, reflecting expectations that the villain survives to continue driving the story into ‘Avengers: Secret Wars.’
This particular betting market is part of a much larger wave of Polymarket activity surrounding ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ this year. According to Covers, separate prediction markets have tracked everything from which legacy characters will appear in cameo roles to box office performance projections, with traders showing particular confidence in Tobey Maguire’s Spider-Man returning at 80% likelihood, compared to a wider 26% for Andrew Garfield.
Box office-focused prediction markets have shown similarly active trading. According to Yellow, Polymarket traders currently price ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ at just 18% to become 2026’s highest-grossing film overall, trailing well behind ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day”s commanding 59% odds, even as Doomsday holds a stronger 75% chance at claiming the year’s best single opening weekend.
That gap largely comes down to release timing rather than any lack of confidence in the film itself. ‘Brand New Day’ hit theaters back in July, giving it nearly five months to accumulate ticket sales before the calendar resets, while ‘Doomsday’ isn’t set to open until December 18, sharing its release date with Denis Villeneuve’s ‘Dune: Part Three’ in what fans have already nicknamed “Dunesday.”
Prediction markets like Polymarket work by allowing traders to buy and sell shares tied to specific outcomes, with prices reflecting the collective wisdom, or speculation, of thousands of participants rather than any confirmed information from the studio itself. As with any fan-driven betting market, these odds represent pure speculation rather than actual plot details, and Marvel has offered no official confirmation about any character’s fate heading into the film’s December release.
With ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ still months away and directed by Anthony and Joe Russo, the filmmaking duo behind the emotionally devastating ‘Avengers: Infinity War’ and ‘Avengers: Endgame,’ fans clearly aren’t taking any chances when it comes to guessing who survives this next chapter.
Which major character do you think is most likely to die in 'Avengers: Doomsday'?
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