‘Moana’ vs. ‘Supergirl’ – 2026’s Biggest Summer Box Office Disaster Battle Is Heating Up
Summer movie seasons live and die on a handful of massive swings, and this year Hollywood rolled the dice on two very different bets that both landed the same way. One studio bet big on reviving a beloved animated franchise in live action, while another bet on expanding a freshly rebooted superhero universe with a lesser-known character. Neither gamble has paid off the way anyone in a boardroom hoped.
Disney’s live-action ‘Moana‘ opened this month, starring Catherine Laga’aia in the title role alongside Dwayne Johnson as Maui, carrying a reported $250 million production budget into theaters. Around the same time, Warner Bros and DC Studios released ‘Supergirl,’ starring Milly Alcock as Superman’s cousin Kara Zor-El, with a production budget reported between $170 million and $186 million plus roughly $120 million in marketing spend. Both films arrived with sizable expectations attached, and both films have spent the weeks since falling well short of them.
The live-action ‘Moana’ opened $33 million higher than ‘Supergirl’ at the global box office, with Moana’s roughly $95 million worldwide debut outpacing Supergirl’s approximately $62.6 million opening weekend. Despite that gap, Fernando points out that Moana’s $250 million budget runs about $75 million higher than Supergirl’s, meaning Disney’s film needed a considerably bigger haul just to reach the same relative starting line, especially once elevated marketing costs are factored in.
That framing captures why both films are being discussed in the same breath as potential contenders for the year’s biggest financial misfire, despite performing very differently on paper.
Supergirl has already been described by analysts as facing losses in the range of $80 million to $100 million, with the film tumbling out of the domestic box office top 5 within just 2 weeks and shedding more than 1,000 theaters as Warner Bros scaled back its release. Moana, meanwhile, has drawn praise from audiences with a record-setting Rotten Tomatoes score for the franchise, yet its opening numbers still landed well below the $130 million worldwide estimate Disney had been targeting.
Both films now risk denting what could have otherwise been a genuinely historic summer season for the box office overall. With 2 high-profile misfires landing so close together, industry watchers are increasingly looking toward the remaining summer slate to determine whether 2026 still ends up setting records or simply limps toward an underwhelming finish.
That is where Christopher Nolan’s ‘The Odyssey’ and Sony’s ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’ come into the picture, both of which appear to be carrying a disproportionate amount of pressure to keep the season’s numbers intact. ‘Brand New Day’ has already posted the strongest first day domestic presales of any film in 5 years, a benchmark last set by ‘Spider-Man: No Way Home’ in 2021, while also becoming Fandango’s single biggest first day preseller of the entire year.
Tracking projections now put the film on pace for a domestic opening north of $250 million, with some global estimates reaching as high as $550 million for its opening weekend alone.
‘The Odyssey’ has generated its own wave of momentum heading into its July 17 release, backed by an unusually aggressive marketing campaign that has included everything from a 6-minute IMAX prologue to physical Trojan Horse installations built for public display. Between the 2 films, expectations are high that a combined blockbuster showing over the back half of July could offset the disappointment left behind by Moana and Supergirl’s shared struggles earlier in the summer.
Which movie do you think will have the biggest impact on turning around the summer box office?
Whether that recovery actually materializes remains to be seen, but the contrast between these 4 films tells a pretty clear story about where audience appetite currently sits. Familiar remakes and lesser-known superhero spinoffs appear to be facing a much tougher road than original spectacle-driven event films or long-awaited franchise continuations, at least based on how ticket buyers have responded so far this year.
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