‘The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping’ Is on Track for a Big Opening Weekend, and Some Trackers Say It Could Go Much Higher

Box office predictions are a funny business, especially for a franchise that has swung between the extremes. ‘The Hunger Games‘ started with four films that all opened above $100 million, then stumbled with a prequel that debuted far below those levels. Heading into the next chapter, expectations are being reset almost daily, and the latest ‘Sunrise on the Reaping’ box office tracking report adds another number to the mix.

Tickets for the Haymitch prequel went on sale on October 28, and the film opens on November 20, with early-access premium screenings on November 18. With the sale underway, trackers have begun to put real data behind their forecasts. The picture that is emerging is more optimistic than the early range.

According to Deadline, the film is on track for an opening weekend of more than $60 million domestically. That would put it comfortably ahead of its predecessor, ‘The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes’, which opened to $44.6 million in 2023. It would also sit within the range that Boxoffice Pro has been forecasting, which is $55 million to $65 million.

Even so, the figure is a floor rather than a ceiling. A $60 million-plus debut would be the second-lowest in the franchise’s history, since every film in the original quartet opened above $100 million.

Other voices are far more bullish. After the first hours of presales, trackers at Global Box Office and Empire City Box Office said the film could open above $100 million. One said that figure looked like a virtual lock, adding that it is not yet clear how high the number could go.

That would be a dramatic leap from the studio-side tracking. A public prediction contest has also drifted higher, with a median guess of about $68 million. The gap between those figures shows how uncertain the picture remains, since early presales are driven by the most devoted fans and can overstate the final result.

The original films opened to roughly $152.5 million, $158.1 million, $121.9 million and $102.7 million. ‘Catching Fire’ holds the franchise’s biggest opening, and it went on to gross more than $860 million worldwide. ‘Songbirds’ earned about $347.6 million worldwide in total, a respectable result but well below the earlier peaks.

The new film’s budget is reported at between $170 million and $200 million, with The Numbers tracking it at $185 million. That is far higher than the roughly $100 million spent on its predecessor, so the film needs a bigger result to count as a win.

Witness the beginning of the revolution. #TheHungerGames: Sunrise on the Reaping – in theaters & IMAX November 20. https://t.co/fKCrWXIk3T

— The Hunger Games (@TheHungerGames) September 16, 2026

One factor in its favor is the calendar. Unlike ‘Songbirds’, which opened against ‘Trolls Band Together’ and shared premium screens, ‘Sunrise on the Reaping’ has its opening weekend to itself. The film inherits what is expected to be a quiet late-October to early-November box office, with only a couple of other releases nearby.

The following Thanksgiving weekend brings new competition, with Disney’s ‘Hexed’ tracking for an opening in the $35 million to $45 million range and a PG-13 comedy, ‘Focker-In-Law’, also arriving. That makes the first weekend especially important for building momentum.

The film’s off-screen indicators are encouraging. Suzanne Collins’ novel sold 1.5 million copies worldwide in its first week, including 1.2 million in the US, which was double the first-week sales of ‘Songbirds’ and triple those of ‘Mockingjay’. The franchise has grossed $3.3 billion overall.

First reactions have also been glowing, with several critics calling it the best film in the series and praising Joseph Zada’s performance as young Haymitch. Jennifer Lawrence and Josh Hutcherson are reported to reprise Katniss and Peeta in the epilogue, which adds to the appeal.

Lionsgate is releasing the film in North America and the UK itself, with partners handling markets such as Germany, France, Italy, Scandinavia and Latin America. The film opens around the world on November 20. International performance will matter, since ‘Songbirds’ earned nearly as much overseas as it did at home.

With a $185 million budget, the studio needs both a strong domestic opening and healthy overseas numbers to make the math work.

In the weeks ahead, the key signals will be presale pace, premium-format demand and the size of Thursday previews. If early momentum holds, the more optimistic trackers may prove right. If it cools, the film could land closer to the conservative range.

Either way, the prequel appears to have reversed the franchise’s trajectory. The only question is how far.

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