‘The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping’ Presales Are Beating ‘Wicked’ and ‘Michael’

There was a time when a new ‘The Hunger Games’ movie meant a guaranteed box office takeover. The first 4 films all opened north of $100 million, with ‘Catching Fire’ sitting at the top of the franchise at roughly $158 million. Then the series went quiet on the big screen, and the question of whether Panem could still pull a crowd became harder to answer.

That uncertainty is a big part of why the box office outlook for ‘The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping’ is getting so much attention. The last entry, ‘The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes’, debuted to $44.6 million, the lowest opening in the franchise. This prequel is a far bigger swing, with a reported budget of $170 million to $200 million, compared with roughly $100 million for its predecessor.

Now the early numbers are starting to tell a very different story. Deadline reports that presales for the film are a post-pandemic record for Lionsgate and are running ahead of both ‘Michael’ and ‘Wicked’ at the same point in the sales cycle. As a result, the film’s projected domestic opening weekend now starts at $80 million or more.

‘THE HUNGER GAMES: SUNRISE ON THE REAPING’ is predicted to open at $80M+ in its domestic opening weekend. Pre-sales are currently ahead of ‘MICHAEL’ and ‘WICKED’ at the same stage. (Via @DEADLINE) https://t.co/LVHEH2HNrD

— Film Updates (@FilmUpdates) November 6, 2026

That floor is a significant jump from the $60 million to $70 million forecast that was circulating just a week earlier. The current opening range is now pegged at $80 million to $100 million, and ‘Michael’ itself debuted to $97.2 million in North America. Prediction platform Polymarket also puts the odds of a debut above $100 million at 75%.

It is worth remembering that presales are an early read rather than a verdict. Films driven by female audiences can be front-loaded, which is why the $80 million figure is described as a floor rather than a ceiling. There was a similar worry about ‘Wicked’ two years ago, and its presales ultimately translated into a $112.5 million opening.

Early ticket sales also tend to be dominated by the most devoted fans, and there is not always a straight line from presales to a huge opening. If demand broadens beyond the core audience, though, the film could get close to the franchise’s glory days.

The momentum did not come out of nowhere. Suzanne Collins’ novel sold 1.5 million copies worldwide in its first week, the biggest debut of any title in her ‘The Hunger Games’ book series. The first teaser trailer also pulled in 109 million views in its first 24 hours.

The story itself is a major draw for longtime fans. It follows a 16-year-old Haymitch Abernathy, played by Joseph Zada, as he competes in the 50th Hunger Games, known as the Second Quarter Quell. The ensemble includes Whitney Peak, Mckenna Grace, Ralph Fiennes, Elle Fanning, Kieran Culkin and Jesse Plemons, with Jennifer Lawrence and Josh Hutcherson reportedly returning as Katniss and Peeta.

Director Francis Lawrence, who has been behind the camera for every film in the franchise except the first, is back at the helm. The movie premiered in London on October 28, the same day tickets went on sale, and it arrives in US theaters on November 20.

Witness the beginning of the revolution. #TheHungerGames: Sunrise on the Reaping – in theaters & IMAX November 20. https://t.co/fKCrWXIk3T

— The Hunger Games (@TheHungerGames) September 16, 2026

Timing may be one of the film’s biggest advantages. Unlike ‘Songbirds & Snakes’, which shared premium screens with ‘Trolls Band Together’, this prequel has its opening weekend largely to itself. The following Thanksgiving weekend brings Disney’s ‘Hexed’, which is tracking at $35 million to $45 million, along with the PG-13 comedy ‘Focker-In-Law’.

Deadline also noted that nothing of the blockbuster size of ‘Wicked’, ‘Moana 2’ or ‘Zootopia 2’ is looming over the Thanksgiving frame. That leaves plenty of room for ‘The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping’ to play as the holiday event movie.

The ceiling is still a question. Topping ‘Catching Fire’s $158 million would be a tall order, but clearing $100 million would put the series back in the territory of the original films. For a studio that just watched ‘Michael’ open to $97.2 million, another hit of that size would be a very good year.

Have something to add? Let us know in the comments!