’The Odyssey’ Just Became the Runaway Best Picture Favorite, and the Numbers Are Getting Wild

Awards season chatter usually takes months to build any real momentum, especially in the middle of summer when most of the year’s biggest contenders have not even hit theaters yet. This year has been different from the start, thanks to one film that arrived early and refused to let go of the conversation.

That film is Christopher Nolan’s sprawling adaptation of Homer’s ancient epic, which turned what should have been a quiet July into one of the most talked-about stretches of the entire movie calendar. Between record-setting reviews and a stunning theatrical debut, the buzz has only intensified with each passing week.

Now that buzz has translated directly into hard numbers. According to prediction market Kalshi, ‘The Odyssey’ leads the Best Picture winner market for the upcoming 99th Academy Awards at 50%, putting it well ahead of Denis Villeneuve’s ‘Dune Part Three’ at 14% and Alejandro G. Iñárritu’s ‘Digger’ at 8%.

Those figures represent a significant swing in a market that traders and awards watchers have been closely tracking since the film’s release. ‘The Odyssey’ has also taken the top spot in the Best Picture nomination market itself, with traders now pricing the film’s chances of landing a nomination near certainty.

Much of that confidence traces back to the reception the film received the moment reviews dropped. Critics across major outlets showered ‘The Odyssey’ with five star praise, with The Telegraph naming it the film of the year and other outlets like Metro and The Times offering similarly glowing assessments of Nolan’s latest effort.

That critical response lines up with how the film has performed with general audiences as well. ‘The Odyssey’ delivered Nolan’s biggest global opening ever, and Kalshi traders have also been closely watching its Rotten Tomatoes trajectory, with predictions pointing toward a score that could rank among the highest of the director’s career.

Nolan’s history with the Academy only adds to the sense that this momentum could carry all the way through awards season. His previous film, ‘Oppenheimer,’ swept the Oscars in 2023, taking home best picture and best director among its seven wins, giving this new project an obvious blueprint to follow.

Still, frontrunner status this early carries its own risks, and awards season has a long history of humbling films that peak too soon. With the Academy’s nominations not arriving until January and the ceremony itself not until March of 2027, there is plenty of time for competitors like ‘Dune Part Three’ to close the gap once they reach theaters.

Other titles remain in the mix as well, even if they trail well behind the current leader. Films like ‘Project Hail Mary’ and Martin McDonagh’s ‘Wild Horse Nine’ continue to register in the broader conversation, giving the race at least the appearance of competition even as one film dominates the headlines.

For now, though, ‘The Odyssey’ stands alone at the top of nearly every major category tracked by prediction markets, from best picture to best director. Whether that lead holds steady or starts to wobble as more contenders emerge will likely become one of the defining storylines of the upcoming awards season.

With months still to go before nominations are even announced, ‘The Odyssey’ has already positioned itself as the film every other Best Picture hopeful will be measured against. What do you think, can anything knock ‘The Odyssey’ off its perch this awards season, let us know in the comments.