Tom Cruise’s ‘Digger’ Opening Day Box Office Estimate Is In, and the Number Is Rough

Tom Cruise and Alejandro G. Iñárritu are an unusual pairing, and ‘Digger‘ was always going to be a big swing. The film marks Iñárritu’s first English-language feature since ‘The Revenant.’ It is also Cruise’s first movie with Warner Bros. since 2014’s ‘Edge of Tomorrow.’

Cruise plays Digger Rockwell, a blowhard oil tycoon whose company causes an ecological disaster that threatens humanity. The film’s budget reportedly grew from an original $125 million to between $160 million and $180 million, putting its break-even point at around $350 million. It opened on Oct. 2 in 3,321 North American theaters.

Now the first estimates for its opening day are circulating. The X account Itsjat32 posted on Oct. 3 that ‘Digger’ looks like about $2 million for Friday, which would give it about $3.25 million for opening day. The same post puts the weekend at around $7 million.

Looks like ~$2M FRI for #Digger, giving it ~$3.25M opening day. Weekend around $7M. pic.twitter.com/Huc8M6iBME

— ਜਤਿੰਦਰ ਸਿੰਘ (@Itsjat32) October 3, 2026

That math follows from Thursday night’s previews, which brought in $1.2 million. Deadline’s Friday evening update was a bit more optimistic, eyeing about $4 million for opening day including previews, and Deadline projected a $10 million weekend. That would still be a weak start for a film this expensive.

The numbers have been sliding for weeks. A long-range forecast from Box Office Pro had originally put the film between $20 million and $30 million. Warner Bros. later projected $12 million to $15 million, while Box Office Theory forecast $7.5 million to $12.5 million, and some rivals have ‘Digger’ in the high single digits.

If the $7 million estimate holds, it would be a historically soft number for Cruise. Deadline notes that a $10 million opening would be his lowest in 19 years, since 2007’s ‘Lions for Lambs’ opened to $6.7 million. The preview total trails the $3.1 million that ‘One Battle After Another’ earned on its way to a $22 million opening, though it edged out the $770,000 that ‘Megalopolis’ made in previews before opening to $4 million.

A new trailer for ‘DIGGER’ has been released.

In theaters October 2. pic.twitter.com/kTEeFZI14E

— Film Updates (@FilmUpdates) September 9, 2026

The competition is not helping. Colleen Hoover’s ‘Verity’ earned $4.5 million in previews and is on track to take the top spot with around $32 million. That gives Cruise’s film a tough fight for even second place.

Reviews have also been divided, which does not help a film that was tricky to market. A lot of what the film is about was kept under wraps before release. IndieWire gave it a C+ and called it a surreal misfire. Deadline’s review praised Cruise’s performance but said the satire could be one of the more divisive movies for the masses in a very long time.

The timing is awkward for Warner Bros. The opening comes as studio film heads Michael De Luca and Pamela Abdy are leaving after their contracts were rejected by new owner Paramount.

Weekend estimates will keep shifting through Sunday, and final numbers will arrive on Monday. Cruise’s next big release, ‘Days of Thunder 2’ with Anne Hathaway, may end up looking far more commercial by comparison.

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