Early Box Office Buzz: ‘Supergirl’ Outperforms Initial Projections

The road to the box office for female-led superhero films has been rocky in recent years, which is exactly why the industry is watching Milly Alcock’s upcoming DC debut with such close attention. Every data point matters, and right now those data points are trending in a very encouraging direction.

‘Supergirl’ is the second film in James Gunn and Peter Safran’s rebooted DC Universe, directed by Craig Gillespie and based on Tom King and Bilquis Evely’s graphic novel. The film arrives in theaters on June 26, carrying a reported production budget of around $170 million. It has been one of the most debated blockbusters of the year before a single ticket is redeemed, with fans and analysts alike splitting over its potential.

When ‘Supergirl’ first arrived on official tracking, Deadline placed its domestic opening weekend outlook at $55 million or more, with the publication noting that the campaign was only just getting started and that pre-sales had not yet been fully absorbed into the projections. That initial figure sparked a wave of online concern, with some analysts drawing uncomfortable comparisons to troubled DC releases of the recent past.

But the story has since shifted in Kara Zor-El’s favor. According to Global Box Office, pre-sales have continued at a surprisingly strong pace following a better-than-expected start the previous week, with the opening weekend now tracking toward a range of $60 million to $77 million domestically. That upper end of the range would push the film well past the initial ceiling and into genuinely competitive summer blockbuster territory.

Earlier pre-sale data showed the film performing roughly two and a half times better than ‘The Marvels’ at the same stage of sales, while also tracking close to ‘Black Widow’ and slightly ahead of ‘Thunderbolts.’ Those are meaningful comparisons, particularly given how much weight the superhero genre still places on opening weekend performance as a cultural signal.

Deadline also noted that overall unaided awareness for ‘Supergirl’ is higher than both ‘The Mandalorian and Grogu’ and ‘Thunderbolts,’ and is distributed fairly evenly across men and women in both the under-25 and over-25 demographics. That cross-gender awareness is a strong indicator of broader audience reach, something that has eluded several female-led superhero films in the past.

The official trailer has accumulated 27 million views on YouTube since it dropped, while the earlier teaser pulled in 24 million views, suggesting marketing momentum has been building steadily rather than peaking too soon. The latest campaign materials have leaned heavily into Jason Momoa’s role as Lobo, introducing the antihero to wider audiences and giving the film an additional energy that goes beyond the solo origin story format.

For context, the predecessor film ‘Superman’ opened to $125 million domestically before legging out to $354 million domestic and $618 million worldwide. ‘Supergirl’ is not expected to match that figure, but an opening in the $60 million to $77 million range would represent a healthy debut for a cosmic, character-driven story that leans harder into tone and mythology than spectacle alone.

With nearly three weeks of pre-sales momentum still to build before opening night, the next official tracking update could bring further upward movement that silences some of the loudest skeptics. Drop your predictions in the comments and let us know whether you think ‘Supergirl’ has what it takes to fly past the top end of its current projection.

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