Zach Cregger’s ‘Resident Evil’ Is Overperforming So Much, Sony’s Own Forecast Is Already Outdated

Studio box office projections usually get adjusted downward once a film actually hits theaters, but every so often a release does the opposite and forces trackers to keep raising the ceiling. That’s exactly the position Sony found itself in this weekend with its latest horror franchise relaunch.

What started as a cautiously optimistic forecast has turned into one of the more dramatic overperformance stories of the year so far, with new numbers arriving faster than anyone expected. The scale of the shift has caught even seasoned box office analysts off guard.

‘Resident Evil’ is overperforming and is now expected to earn $53 million to $60 million in its domestic opening weekend, The Hollywood Handle reported, marking both the highest opening in the franchise’s history and the highest of Zach Cregger’s career. The updated figures represent a significant jump from Sony’s own initial forecast of around $40 million heading into release.

‘RESIDENT EVIL’ is overperforming and is now expected to earn $53M-$60M in its domestic opening weekend.

• Highest of the franchise

• Highest of Zach Cregger’s career pic.twitter.com/6z4zymVtjL
— The Hollywood Handle (@HollywoodHandle) September 19, 2026

The previous domestic opening record belonged to 2010’s ‘Resident Evil: Afterlife,’ which debuted with $26.6 million, a figure this reboot’s single opening day of $26.3 million alone came close to matching outright. That opening day total included $8.8 million from Thursday preview screenings, itself a franchise record before the weekend even officially began.

Compare that to the franchise’s most recent entry, ‘Welcome to Raccoon City,’ which opened to just $5.32 million, and the scale of this turnaround becomes even clearer. This weekend’s opening alone is on pace to surpass the entire lifetime domestic gross of several earlier films in the series combined.

This marks Cregger’s strongest domestic launch to date, surpassing his 2025 film ‘Weapons,’ which opened to $43.5 million domestically before finishing its run with $270 million worldwide. Before that, his 2022 breakout ‘Barbarian’ established him as a filmmaker capable of turning modestly budgeted horror into major theatrical events.

Taking the reins of an established franchise with a $75 million budget represented a different kind of test for Cregger, one focused on proving he could deliver at a larger studio scale rather than with original concepts. Early results suggest that test has been passed decisively, with industry watchers increasingly pointing to him as one of the most reliable directors currently working in horror.

Audience reception has matched the box office momentum, with the film earning a B+ CinemaScore, the highest rating any ‘Resident Evil’ film has received in the franchise’s history. PostTrak data showed a 70% definite recommend score overall, climbing to 75% among men over 25, while 52% of ticket buyers made same-day walk-up purchases.

That combination of strong reviews and record-breaking numbers suggests this isn’t simply a case of built-in fanbase turnout carrying the weekend. Word-of-mouth appears to be reinforcing the momentum rather than working against it, a pattern that bodes well for how the film performs in the weeks following its debut.

The first trailer for Zach Cregger's ‘RESIDENT EVIL’ has been released.

In theaters on September 18. pic.twitter.com/eeVCAGzy6M
— DiscussingFilm (@DiscussingFilm) April 30, 2026

With the film’s $75 million budget already well within reach after a single weekend, Sony now has a clear commercial case for continuing the franchise under Cregger’s direction. The reboot’s domestic-first success also marks a notable shift for a series that has historically leaned far more heavily on international box office than U.S. ticket sales, with the franchise’s original run spanning 24 years and multiple lead actors before this relaunch arrived.

As final weekend numbers roll in over the coming days, ‘Resident Evil’ looks positioned to close out the weekend as one of the biggest horror surprises of the year. The film also comfortably outpaced its closest competition, with ‘Practical Magic 2’ landing in a distant second place at an estimated $13 million to $15 million.

That gap between first and second place only reinforces how dominant this opening has become relative to the rest of the current theatrical marketplace. For a franchise that many assumed had run its course after years of diminishing returns, this weekend’s numbers suggest ‘Resident Evil’ may have found new life at exactly the right moment.