‘Avengers: Doomsday’ Reportedly Eyes a Massive China Run, Fueling Talk of a Record-Breaking Global Opening
Box office forecasting is as much art as science, but every once in a while, a number comes along that makes the whole industry pay attention. With the next Avengers film still two months away, the predictions are already piling up. The latest one comes from the world’s second-largest movie market.
‘Avengers: Doomsday‘ has been breaking pre-sale records for months. The film reportedly passed $100 million in global pre-sales more than two months before release, with new highs in Brazil and the UK. It’s also tracking to beat the record set by ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day,’ which opened to $360 million in North America and $932 million globally.
Now, a first projection for the film’s China run has surfaced, and it’s eye-catching. The estimate suggests ‘Doomsday’ could earn about $360 million in total there, and some are using it to argue that a $1 billion global opening weekend is possible. The figure is unofficial, and Disney hasn’t commented, but it adds to a growing sense of scale.
AVENGERS: DOOMSDAY first Chinese projection for its box office run in China was revealed, it’s an insane $360M total. This could possibly mean it might reach a $1 BILLION global opening weekend, depending on how Dune will affect its performance in Europe. https://t.co/kfqwUIbFnr
— Global Box Office (@GlobalBoxOffice) October 12, 2026
China has been a major driver for Marvel before. In its first 11 days of release in 2019, ‘Avengers: Endgame’ earned around $575.8 million there alone, and Maoyan, China’s largest ticketing app, projected the film would end with roughly $612 million on the mainland. Against that, a $360 million projection for ‘Doomsday’ would be notably lower, but still enormous.
That gap reflects how the market has changed. Chinese blockbusters now dominate the local charts, and Hollywood films can no longer count on automatic mega-hits. Even so, a total of $360 million would rank among the biggest runs for a Hollywood film in recent years.
The film also has several promising indicators in China. Disney has confirmed that ‘Doomsday’ opens there on December 16, two days ahead of its US release, with a local poster highlighting IMAX, 3D and Dolby formats. On Maoyan, the film’s want-to-see count stood at 253,000 at 69 days before release, close to the 264,000 that ‘Endgame’ reached at the same point.
It also ranks No. 1 on Douban’s list of the most anticipated foreign-language films of 2026. China is one of only a handful of international markets where the film will screen in IMAX. That premium format advantage matters because IMAX screens in most other territories are going to a rival.
The $1 billion global opening idea has been circulating since presales began. Several outlets have said the film could reach that mark, and some have floated figures as high as $1.5 billion. Domestic projections range widely, with some trackers eyeing more than $400 million in North America.
More cautious analysts see a different picture. Some have offered domestic estimates as low as $230 million to $260 million and a worldwide opening closer to $600 million. Even those numbers would be among the biggest debuts of the year, which shows how high expectations already are.
The biggest wildcard is ‘Dune: Part Three,’ which opens on the same day. Villeneuve’s film has secured IMAX exclusivity for its opening weekend in North America, leaving ‘Doomsday’ without the format in the US and most territories. Disney has responded with its own premium label, Infinity Vision, and a studio insider has pointed to ‘Barbie’ and ‘Lilo & Stitch,’ which crossed $1 billion without IMAX support.
The overlap could also affect Europe, where the two films will compete for the same audience. That’s why some forecasts hedge their big numbers by pointing to how ‘Dune’ might shape performance there. The so-called “Dunesday” clash may end up boosting overall attendance, or it may split audiences.
He used to be different. Avengers: Doomsday arrives in theaters everywhere December 18. Get your tickets now: https://t.co/J5PUbxvAkc https://t.co/OUutSMZneq
— Marvel Studios (@MarvelStudios) August 15, 2026
It’s worth remembering that early tracking is often unreliable. Presales reflect enthusiasm among the most eager fans, not necessarily the general audience. Word of mouth, reviews and competition can all change the outcome.
Still, the early signals are strong. With a stacked cast, a global release strategy and demand building in China, ‘Doomsday’ looks poised for a major launch. Whether it can reach the $1 billion mark remains the big question.
Can Avengers: Doomsday really open to $1 billion worldwide?
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