‘The Housemaid’ Star Sydney Sweeney’s Bond Girl Odds Take a Sharp Dive as 007 Casting Heats Up

Every few months, a new name rockets to the top of the “next Bond girl” conversation, and for a long stretch that name was Sydney Sweeney. With the 007 franchise heading into its first post-Daniel Craig era, fans and bettors have treated the leading lady as nearly as important as the man behind the Walther PPK. The search for her, though, has been anything but linear.

Denis Villeneuve is directing the next Bond film for Amazon MGM Studios, which is still referred to as ‘Bond 26’ and is expected to arrive in 2028. No official casting has been announced for either 007 or his co-star. That vacuum has turned prediction markets into a kind of public scoreboard, and Sweeney’s rating on that board has been a rollercoaster.

Kalshi’s market for “Next James Bond film: Actress cast as Bond girl” currently gives Sweeney a 12% chance of landing the role. The market’s chart shows her odds swinging up and down over time before dropping sharply at the end. It’s a notable fall for an actress who once led the entire field.

Back in early May, Sweeney held the top spot at 25%, ahead of Margaret Qualley at 17% and Lily James at 10%. Other betting sites had her even higher at various points, including one that listed her at +250, a 28.6% implied probability. At that point she looked like the obvious choice.

By June, Qualley had overtaken Sweeney on Kalshi, and she has held a strong lead since. Then came a bigger shake-up in late August, when Anya Taylor-Joy surged to 65%, while Qualley sat at 29% and Sweeney at 19%. Analysts noted that a jump from roughly 20% to 65% in a matter of days is the kind of shift that can precede real news, though it can also be pure market noise.

Sweeney’s own case has always blended buzz and uncertainty. A Variety feature reportedly claimed that Jeff Bezos wanted her in the film, which fueled the excitement. But TMZ reported in 2025 that she wasn’t being considered, and she has plenty on her plate, including a sequel to ‘The Housemaid’ and the thriller ‘The Caretaker’.

On paper, it is easy to see why she became a favorite. She’s a two-time Emmy nominee for ‘Euphoria’ and ‘The White Lotus’, and her big-screen credits include ‘Christy’, ‘The Housemaid’ and ‘Madame Web’. She has also become one of the most recognizable names of her generation, which is exactly what a franchise reset tends to chase.

Some commentators have framed her as a natural fit for where Bond is heading, citing global recognition, glamour and social media reach. Others argue that the franchise may want a less obvious star. Both arguments can be true at once, which is why the odds keep moving.

The uncertainty isn’t limited to the Bond girl. For 007 himself, Callum Turner, Jacob Elordi and Jack Lowden have each led various markets, and as of late September Amazon MGM still hadn’t made an official casting announcement. Several shortlists have circulated, naming actors including Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Damson Idris, Harris Dickinson and Tom Francis.

That churn is part of the story. Prediction markets tend to react to rumors, interviews and offhand comments, so a sudden shift can mean a lot or nothing at all. Treat any percentage as a snapshot of public sentiment rather than a leak from inside the studio.

A 12% rating isn’t a death sentence. It simply means traders see several actresses as more likely than her right now, and that could change as quickly as it did in August. If the studio announces its Bond first, the leading lady market will probably reshuffle all over again.

For now, Sweeney remains in the conversation, but she’s no longer the default answer. The next few months of casting news will show whether this dip was a blip or the beginning of the end for her Bond buzz.

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