Hollywood Cracks Down on Insider Bets as Studios Ban Employees From Wagering on Movie News

Prediction markets have gone from niche curiosity to cultural fixture in a remarkably short time. Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket now let almost anyone wager on anything, from elections to the release date of ‘Outer Banks’, and entertainment has become one of the most talked-about corners of the industry. For the people who actually work in film and television, that creates an uncomfortable temptation.

The problem is that Hollywood runs on information that is valuable long before the public hears it. Casting choices, release dates and earnings figures are all known to a small circle of employees well ahead of any announcement, and prediction markets have turned that knowledge into something that could be cashed in.

According to an exclusive from The Hollywood Reporter, studios and production companies have been quietly issuing new guidelines warning employees not to bet on prediction markets. The warnings prohibit wagers on news events such as studio earnings, casting and even release dates.

Passing information to friends and family so that they can place bets is also forbidden. At least one company has gone further and set up a hotline where staffers can anonymously report colleagues they suspect of placing bets.

The bans cover far more than blockbuster secrets. THR’s own parent company, PMC, which also owns Variety, Deadline and Dick Clark Productions, has updated its employee handbook to forbid betting on “award nominations, casting decisions, production timelines and release dates.”

The timing makes sense given what prediction markets now offer. Users can wager on who will be cast as the next James Bond, the next Wonder Woman or who will be eliminated on ‘Dancing with the Stars’, which gives insiders endless opportunities to profit quietly.

Some improper betting among entertainment insiders has already surfaced. In February, Kalshi disclosed that a video editor working for MrBeast’s company had used confidential information to place bets on the creator’s content. The employee was fired and hit with a $20,000 penalty.

A column from Puck in April also described someone working on a CBS competition show who had been making side money on prediction apps. Those cases almost certainly represent only a fraction of what is happening behind the scenes.

Experts cited in the report say there is almost no way to completely stop the practice. Prediction market bets can be difficult for employers to trace to individual employees, particularly on blockchain-based platforms.

The new rules are partly an expansion of longstanding policies that already bar employees from insider trading in the stock market. Many instances of prediction market profiteering using corporate insider information might already violate federal law, but the platforms operate in a legal gray area because the SEC does not classify prediction market contracts as securities.

Hollywood is hardly alone. Apple recently updated its insider trading policy to bar employees from using confidential information to trade on prediction markets, and Goldman Sachs told staff to confine their activity to sports and entertainment.

The Pentagon has also banned personnel from using nonpublic information to bet, with a memo that names Polymarket and Kalshi. In Washington, House Oversight Chairman James Comer opened an investigation in May into how the platforms guard against insider trading.

Kalshi, which is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, says it functions much like the stock market and has policies against insiders and people bound by nondisclosure agreements using unique knowledge to profit. Polymarket is a blockchain-based platform run by an entity licensed in Panama, and both companies have said they are strengthening their own rules.

Scrutiny keeps growing. A March study estimated $143 million in anomalous profit across Polymarket over a two-year period, and that figure has almost certainly risen since.

For employees, the message is simple: knowing a release date or casting decision is no longer just a perk of the job, but a liability if it leads to a bet. Staffers who once treated such information as harmless gossip now have to think about handbooks, hotlines and possible firings.

Whether the bans will actually change behavior remains to be seen, since enforcement is so difficult.

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