‘Avengers: Doomsday’ Already Has Rotten Tomatoes Score Predictions, but There’s a Catch

Marvel fans have spent all year dissecting every trailer frame, casting rumor, and set photo tied to ‘Avengers: Doomsday,’ and the speculation shows no signs of slowing down as the film’s December release edges closer. With Robert Downey Jr. stepping into a very different role and the multiverse concept finally paying off on a massive scale, expectations for this one are sky-high.

That anticipation has spilled over into an unusual place: prediction markets, where traders are essentially betting real money on how the film will perform once critics get their hands on it. It’s a strange but increasingly common way for fans to gauge the temperature around a blockbuster months before anyone has actually seen it.

According to a new figure circulating from Kalshi, a regulated prediction market platform, ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ is now being forecast to land around an 84.8% score on Rotten Tomatoes. That number reflects where traders currently expect the Tomatometer to settle once the film’s review embargo lifts closer to its theatrical debut.

It’s worth remembering that this figure is a live, constantly shifting forecast rather than an actual verdict, since the film hasn’t been screened for critics yet. Kalshi’s tracking has shown the prediction bouncing around throughout the year, and as recently as mid-June the same market had ‘Doomsday’ pegged closer to an 82% rating, sitting in the 81 to 85 percent range at the time.

That earlier prediction already placed the film above the 75% threshold Rotten Tomatoes requires for its “Certified Fresh” designation, though still below some of the franchise’s biggest previous wins. For context, ‘The Avengers’ opened to a 91% critics score in 2012, ‘Avengers: Infinity War’ landed at 85% in 2018, and ‘Avengers: Endgame’ hit a franchise-best 94% in 2019, while 2015’s ‘Avengers: Age of Ultron’ settled at a comparatively modest 75%.

Given how far out these predictions are being made, they’re effectively built on vibes rather than hard data. Beyond a handful of character reveal videos and a brief teaser released earlier this year, Marvel still hasn’t put out a full trailer for ‘Doomsday,’ meaning traders are largely pricing in franchise goodwill and casting buzz rather than anything concrete about the finished film.

Much of that buzz has centered on who will actually show up. Prediction markets tracking potential cameos have seen heavy trading activity, with contracts betting on a Tobey Maguire appearance as Spider-Man reportedly trading much higher than similar bets on Tom Holland’s version of the character. Total volume across Kalshi’s cameo-related markets for the film has climbed toward $600,000, according to reporting on the platform’s activity.

There’s also been direct commentary from the cast about the pressure riding on this film. During a panel at SXSW London earlier this year, Robert Downey Jr. acknowledged the challenge of following up two of the highest-grossing movies ever made, with Marvel positioning ‘Doomsday’ as something of a reset for the franchise rather than a direct continuation of ‘Endgame’s’ box office dominance.

None of this means the eventual Rotten Tomatoes score will land anywhere near 84.8%, or even within the range Kalshi is currently forecasting. Prediction markets are a fun temperature check, but they’re driven by trader sentiment, not test screenings or actual critic reactions, and plenty of blockbusters have defied their early betting odds in both directions.

‘Avengers: Doomsday’ is set to hit theaters on December 18, giving Marvel a few more months to build hype before critics get their say.

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