‘Avengers: Doomsday’ Opens with Less than Two Weeks Left in 2026 and Still Has a Chance to Outgross ‘The Odyssey’ and ‘Toy Story’ — Here’s Why

Every blockbuster season eventually turns into a numbers game, with box office trackers and industry analysts constantly recalibrating which release actually has the best shot at claiming the year’s top spot. For a franchise as consistently dominant as the Avengers, that conversation usually starts and ends with Marvel’s name attached.

This year looks different. Despite carrying one of the most anticipated ensembles Marvel has ever assembled, ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ is running into a challenge that has less to do with quality and more to do with simple timing, a problem that becomes clearer the closer the calendar creeps toward its December release.

According to current Polymarket trading data, ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ now sits at just a 15 percent chance of finishing 2026 as the year’s highest-grossing film, trailing significantly behind ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day,’ which commands roughly 74 percent of trader confidence in the same market.

That gap comes down almost entirely to release timing. Films need time to build momentum and maximize their earnings at the box office, and summer releases naturally have far more runway than a film opening right before Christmas.

Doomsday benefits from Marvel’s event status and a prime December 18 holiday release window, but it trails in these markets partly due to lingering questions around long term franchise fatigue following a stretch of underperforming post-Endgame releases.

Spider-Man, by contrast, benefits from nearly every advantage Doomsday lacks. Spider-Man: Brand New Day holds the strongest trader consensus for the year’s highest gross largely because of its prime July 31 summer slot, the consistently strong global draw of the Tom Holland led franchise, and fresh marketing momentum following a recently released trailer that spotlighted high profile cameos and escalating stakes.

This gap has not always looked this lopsided. Earlier this year, odds for the highest-grossing film of 2026 had The Super Mario Galaxy Movie leading at 39 percent, with Spider-Man Brand New Day trailing at 31 percent and Avengers Doomsday sitting at 18 percent.

Since then, Spider-Man’s position has only strengthened as its own marketing rollout picked up steam. By April, Spider-Man Brand New Day had climbed to 45.5 percent implied probability, up from 38 percent at market open, driven by what analysts described as a sustained trend rather than a temporary spike in trader confidence.

It is worth noting that trailing in a box office prediction market is not the same as underperforming at the actual box office. Doomsday’s release the same day as Denis Villeneuve’s Dune: Part Three, combined with its late December opening, gives it dramatically less runway within the calendar year compared to Spider-Man’s midsummer debut, even if Doomsday ultimately proves to be the more successful film overall once its full theatrical run extends into 2027.

Avengers Doomsday still carries the highest trading volume among all contenders in these markets, suggesting traders remain highly engaged with its prospects even as the probability leans against it finishing on top within the calendar year.

None of this speculation reflects any actual judgment on the quality or scale of ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ itself. Given Marvel’s history of ending years with massive December openings that continue earning well into the following January, the film’s true box office impact may simply extend beyond what a strict calendar year cutoff can capture.

With Spider-Man Brand New Day arriving July 31 and Avengers Doomsday following on December 18, both films are set to anchor two of the biggest release windows of the year, regardless of how this specific prediction market ultimately resolves. Do you think Doomsday can defy these odds once it finally hits theaters? Share your thoughts in the comments.