‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’ Is Now Looking to Beat Avengers: Endgame as the Highest Opening Day of All Time

Box office forecasting has always been part science and part vibes, but every so often, a number gets floated that’s bold enough to make even seasoned trackers pause. That’s exactly what’s happening as ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’ heads into its opening day in North America.

Industry chatter around the film’s box office potential has been climbing steadily for weeks, with tracking services offering wildly different projections depending on how bullish they’re feeling. Now, as actual Thursday preview numbers start rolling in, some forecasters are floating a target that would put the film in territory only one movie has ever reached.

According to tracking discussion on the Box Office Theory forum, one contributor projected Thursday previews landing around 75,000,000 dollars, with Friday’s overall single-day total potentially climbing to 85,000,000 dollars, for a combined opening day gross approaching 160,000,000 dollars. That number is specifically being framed as a shot at unseating ‘Avengers: Endgame’s’ all-time opening day record.

That record has stood since 2019, when ‘Endgame‘ shattered the box office with a single-day, opening-day, and Friday gross of 157.4,000,000 dollars, a total that included a record-setting 60,000,000 dollar Thursday preview haul. The film went on to smash the previous single-day record held by ‘Star Wars: The Force Awakens,’ which had topped out at 119.1,000,000 dollars just a few years earlier.

For context on just how significant that record is, ‘Endgame’ remains the only film in history to cross the 350,000,000 dollar mark over a full opening weekend, finishing with 357.1,000,000 dollars domestically. No other release, including Marvel’s own subsequent tentpoles, has come close to matching either its single-day or full-weekend numbers in the years since.

That’s what makes this latest round of speculation around ‘Brand New Day’ so notable. Broader industry tracking has already positioned the film for a domestic opening weekend somewhere between 195,000,000 and 300,000,000 dollars, with some outlets suggesting the final number could land even higher once actual Thursday and Friday numbers are factored in.

The film has also been steadily gaining ground in terms of theatrical presence, reportedly claiming roughly 49% of all weekend showtimes across North American theaters as of midweek, a dramatic jump from the 22% share ‘The Odyssey’ held during its own opening two weeks earlier. That kind of screen dominance tends to translate directly into stronger single-day performance, especially for a film generating this much advance buzz.

It’s worth noting that forum-based tracking projections like this one are inherently speculative, built from scattered theater-level presale data and extrapolated comps rather than official studio reporting. Even the most sophisticated forecasting models have historically struggled to nail exact single-day totals for films this anticipated, with real numbers often swinging significantly once actual grosses are reported.

Still, the fact that ‘Endgame’s’ opening day record is even being mentioned in the same conversation as ‘Brand New Day’ says a lot about how seriously the industry is taking this release. Whether the film actually threatens that six-year-old record or simply lands as one of the biggest Spider-Man openings ever, either outcome would mark a massive night for Sony and Marvel.

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