‘The Mandalorian and Grogu’ Opens Strong Globally — But How Does It Stack Up Against Its Budget?

The Memorial Day box office weekend has turned into a mixed picture for Disney and Lucasfilm’s The Mandalorian and Grogu, according to industry estimates reported by box office analysts.

The film opened to $82 million domestically over three days and reached around $165 million worldwide. With the extended holiday weekend included, early projections suggest it could land near $102 million in the U.S. alone.

At first glance, the numbers look solid. But the comparison to past Star Wars releases makes things more complicated. Analysts point out that the opening is close to what Solo: A Star Wars Story earned in its debut during Memorial Day weekend in 2018. That film went on to finish its run with $392 million worldwide, which is considered one of the weaker results in the franchise’s live-action history.

Because of that comparison, some in the industry are cautious about calling the opening a full success. The concern is whether The Mandalorian and Grogu will have strong staying power in the coming weeks. Even in a more optimistic scenario, projections suggest the film may end up closer to the global total of $521.8 million seen by Marvel’s The Fantastic Four: First Steps, which would still be below typical Star Wars expectations.

There are also concerns about audience demographics. Reports show that only 27 percent of viewers are under the age of 25. That is lower than earlier Star Wars films like Star Wars: The Last Jedi, which had about 37 percent of its audience in that age group. This has led to discussion about whether younger viewers are engaging less with the franchise, while older fans continue to make up most of the audience.

Still, there is another side to the story. Early reception from audiences has been mostly positive. The film earned an A- CinemaScore, strong audience ratings on PostTrak, and a 89 percent audience score on Rotten Tomatoes, compared to 62 percent from critics. Industry sources suggest that this kind of reception could help the movie hold steady in the weeks ahead, especially if it avoids heavy competition from upcoming releases like Masters of the Universe and Scary Movie. The budget was also $165 million, the lowest for a Star Wars film under Disney.

Merchandising and long-term brand value are also expected to play a role. The character Grogu continues to be one of the most popular figures in modern Star Wars, and analysts expect strong toy sales, streaming interest, and theme park traffic tied to Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge. Attractions like Millennium Falcon: Smuggler’s Run have also been updated to include references to the film’s main characters, which could help keep interest high beyond theaters.

While The Mandalorian and Grogu is the main focus for Disney this weekend, another film is drawing major attention across the box office. Focus Features’ Obsession is performing far above expectations. It earned $22.4 million in its second weekend, which is actually higher than its opening weekend, a rare increase in box office performance. Its domestic total now stands at about $58.5 million.

Overall, the holiday weekend has performed better than expected. Early estimates placed the total box office around $190 million, but the final figure is closer to $219 million. That puts it slightly below the 2022 Memorial Day weekend, which was boosted heavily by Top Gun: Maverick.

Other films also continued to perform steadily. Michael held strong in its fifth weekend, while The Devil Wears Prada 2 crossed major global milestones. Smaller releases like The Sheep Detectives and Passenger had more modest results, with mixed audience reactions affecting their long-term outlook.

In the end, the weekend shows a split result. The Mandalorian and Grogu delivered a strong opening, but questions remain about its long-term performance, while other films like Obsession are proving that smaller titles can still surprise at the box office.

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